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EMU Comment — Weaker growth but higher inflation

  1. GDP growth slowed to 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 - weaker than expected
  2. Inflation rose further above the ECB's goal in July
  3. Unemployment steady at 8.3% in June

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

EMU Comment — Economic confidence drops to lowest level in a year

  1. Economic Sentiment Index fell from 112.3 to 112.1 in July (estimated 112.0)
  2. Confirms weaker growth momentum
  3. Global trade uncertainty may be gaining

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

EMU Comment — Trade fears beginning to weigh?

  1. Flash PMI surprises on the upside
  2. Underlying signs of mounting trade war fears
  3. Lower but stable GDP growth for now

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

EMU Comment — PMI rises for the first time in five months

  1. Composite PMI surprised on the upside...
  2. ...due to stronger Service PMI
  3. Employment and inflation improved

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — The ECB expects to hike rates in September 2019 at the earliest

  1. ECB ends QE as expected and gives more explicit guidance on rates
  2. Inflation forecast revised up, but growth forecast revised down
  3. Rate hike in September at the earliest?

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |