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Fast Comment FinlandGood but maturing growth ahead for Finnish manufacturing

  1. Finnish manufacturing grew 4.4 percent y-o-y in January 2018
  2. Electrical and electronics industry the bright spot
  3. The peak is behind us
Finnish manufacturing grew 4.4 percent y-o-y in January 2018
Seasonally-adjusted industrial output grew by 0.1 percent in January from the previous month. According to Statistics Finland, total industrial output adjusted for working days was 4.8 percent higher in January 2018 than in January 2017. Manufacturing output increased by 0.1 percent m-o-m and 4.4 percent y-o-y. After very strong gains in November and December, January was a much weaker month for Finnish industry, when corrected for seasonal variation. The value of new orders in manufacturing was 6.9 percent higher in January 2018 than twelve months earlier, and for the three months November 2017 to January 2018, the value of new orders was up about 21 percent from a year ago, indicating still steady demand over the near term.
Electrical and electronics industry the bright spot
Of the main industries, seasonally-adjusted industrial output increased most in January in the electrical and electronics industry, up 5.5 percent m-o-m. Excluding this sector, output in manufacturing expanded 0.8 percent from the previous month. Manufacturing of transport equipment and other machinery and equipment also remained robust, increasing 30.2 percent and 36.3 percent m-o-m respectively.
The peak is behind us
Finnish industry experienced a notable recovery in 2017. Following strengthened global demand, both industrial production and goods export volumes saw an upsurge in spring 2017. However, the growth trend softened toward year-end and in January. This is particularly evident when looking at export of goods from Finland. Exports goods volumes (deflated by export prices) grew by an average of 6.7 percent y-o-y in November 2017 to January 2018, well below the peak of above 20 percent in mid-2017. Some global business cycle indicators, such as global trade and industry output volumes, have shown signs of maturing in recent months and the growth trend for Finnish goods exports seems to be following the same path. Our forecast for Finnish industry is for good but maturing growth.

 

 

 


 

 


 






Disclaimer

Tiina Helenius

Chief Economist Finland

Finland and Emerging Asia

tihe01@handelsbanken.se

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