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Fast Comment FinlandIndustrial activity remained robust in May

  1. Finnish manufacturing grew 3.5 percent y-o-y
  2. A large drop in new manufacturing orders is explained by a strong reference month
  3. Growth in goods export volumes has clearly peaked
Finnish manufacturing grew 3.5 percent y-o-y
According to Statistics Finland, output of total industries adjusted for working days increased by 3.5 percent y-o-y in May 2018. In m-o-m terms, the seasonally-adjusted industrial output increased by 0.9 percent. Production levels increased most in mining and quarrying, by 57.1 percent m-o-m, as peat production was boosted by favourable weather conditions in May. In all other industries, the total output remained near April levels. During January-May, the output of total industries went up by 4.6 percent y-o-y.
A large drop in new manufacturing orders is explained by a strong reference month
The value of new manufacturing orders fell by 34.7 percent y-o-y. A large drop is mainly explained by a particularly strong reference month in May 2017, with large new orders in the shipbuilding industry. In the chemical industry and in the manufacture of paper and paper products, new orders increased by about four percent y-o-y in May. According to the preliminary statistics of foreign trade of goods provided by Finnish Customs, the value of Finnish goods exports decreased by 5 percent y-o-y in May whereas the value of goods imports increased by 3 percent y-o-y. A decline in goods export growth was largely explained by a strong reference month in May 2017 when a cruise ship and an aeroplane were exported. During January-May, goods exports and imports increased by 7 and 6 percent, respectively
Growth in goods export volumes has clearly peaked
The Finnish goods exports rebounded in 2016 and growth rates were particularly strong in 2017. However, this year we have witnessed a clear softening in goods exports volumes. The Finnish goods exports growth trend evidently follows the global business cycle indicators like global trade, with signs of maturing in both measures. Still, Finnish manufacturing output is growing at a steady pace, and the manufacturing confidence remains high in the Finnish business surveys. We expect growth in Finnish manufacturing and exports to stay moderate this year.

 


 






Disclaimer

Janne Ronkanen

Senior Economist

Finland

jaro06@handelsbanken.se

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