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Fast Comment SwedenHousing prices rise in May; upward risk to our 2019 call for stable prices

  1. Annual housing price rise now steadily positive after a period of stabilisation
  2. Broad-based rise across the regions
  3. But risks to prices remain, and newly produced homes are still falling in price


Housing prices rose somewhat in May. After a period of stabilisation and more recent increases on a monthly basis, the annual rate is now in steadily positive territory and housing prices are rising in line with overall Swedish inflation. It means that there is some upward risk to our assumption of stable prices for 2019.


Source: Macrobond


Regional variations were small in May, with price rises roughly average or slightly above average. Looking instead at the past 12 months, Malmö has outperformed many other large and mid-sized cities. 


Source: Handelsbanken, Valueguard and Macrobond



Have the risks to housing prices faded? Maybe not, after all. First, spring fell early this year, which generated unusually high activity for some months. That may have distorted prices too. Valueguard today reports that, if anything, price trends in early June were cooler than in recent months. New ads have started to fall, according to Hemnet, so we will probably know more soon. Second, in new construction, advertised prices are still in a downward trend, even if the "worst" might be over, as the share of price reductions before sale appears to be peaking. Third, Swedish construction firms are still pessimistic about the future; stay tuned for new data in the NIER business survey, due at 09.00 CET today. 



 


Source: Macrobond



Source: Macrobond

Disclaimer

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

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