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Global Macro CommentUS and China step away from the brink; rate cuts in July (Fed), September (ECB)

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At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stepped away from the brink and agreed on a temporary, but argua-bly fragile, trade truce. We have had rate cuts from the Fed next year in our forecasts for some time, but we now ex-pected to see them sooner. Despite it likely being a close call, we expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25bp in July and to deliver a cumulative 75bp of cuts early next year. We expect the ECB to adjust forward guidance in July, cut rates in September by 10bp and likely introduce quantitative easing thereafter.

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 Erik Meyersson

Erik Meyersson

Senior Economist

Eurozone

erme03@handelsbanken.se

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