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Fast Comment SwedenHesitant housing prices

  1. HOX Valueguard housing prices flat in August, as positive trend stalls
  2. Full-year 2019 still on track to register a price rise
  3. Upbeat mood in housing market remains, with stabilisation not yet affected by poor macroeconomic news

Housing prices rose in August, but it is all about seasonality. Stripping out that effect, prices were unchanged compared with last month, a tendency we have seen for the entire summer.

 


Source: Macrobond


Despite housing prices being hesitant lately, full-year 2019 should show an increase compared with last year, barring any late autumn drama. The year-on-year growth registered 2 percent in August.

 


Source: Macrobond


Malmö and medium-sized cities are currently outpacing Stockholm when it comes to prices for houses.

 


Source: Macrobond


Turning to flats, only Malmö has regained lost ground after the 2017 housing price drop, although developments there were weaker in previous years.

 


Source: Macrobond


A good sign for the overall housing market is that stabilisation for newly produced homes appears to have taken another step. Prices paid have risen, even if advertised prices remain lower than two years ago, and producers seem to have less of a need to offer discounts.

 


Source: Macrobond


Another sign of stability is the solid activity data, showing a historically high number of transactions. There has been worrying macroeconomic news, particularly in the last few months, so we will closely monitor indicators like this. A deteriorating mood in the housing market could become reality if households become more worried about their future finances.

 


Source: Macrobond


For now, households remain only moderately pessimistic, according to the Consumer Confidence Index.

 


Source: Macrobond


Disclaimer

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

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