Research
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Emerging Markets

Fast Comment China — Slightly improved economic growth in November – growth should slow in 2017

  1. Stable or improved activity indicators in November
  2. Growth set to slow again next year

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — The industrial sector is fairly strong again

  1. Mixed PMI signals…
  2. …but October jump not reversed

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Decent activity indicators in October

  1. A mixed bag of numbers
  2. Property investments growth strong for now

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se