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Emerging Markets

Monthly Macro Update — Recovery phase is about to end

US: 'Goldilocks scenario' will not last long
Eurozone: Approaching balanced growth
UK: Brexit negotiations thrown into chaos
Nordics: Short-term resilience

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Slowdown continues, but no sign of a collapse

  1. Industrial production and retail sales growth stable in May
  2. Signs of housing market dampening measures kicking in
  3. No dramatic slowdown

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — The April decline in manufacturing PMI was not repeated in May

  1. Official PMI points to stability
  2. Growth will slow ahead

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Credit rating downgrade a blow to China’s push to attract foreign bond investors

  1. Limited negative effect on the overall economy
  2. More difficult to liberalise capital restrictions
  3. Authorities reject the arguments

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast comment China — The slowdown is here

  1. All indicators point to slower growth
  2. Industrial sector leading the slowdown – property to follow suit
  3. Do not fear a total collapse

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Economic growth accelerated in Q1

  1. We still expect growth to slow ahead…
  2. …despite strong momentum in March

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk