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Emerging Markets

Fast Comment China — Economic growth accelerated in Q1

  1. We still expect growth to slow ahead…
  2. …despite strong momentum in March

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — US toward recession

• Europe pressured by structural problems
• The economic and political toolbox is empty
• Low growth in the Nordics

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — China’s economy started 2017 on a strong note

  1. Construction investments keeps the economy running
  2. Lunar New Year holiday distorts data, as usually
  3. Less policy support needed

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — China’s economy started 2017 on a fairly strong note according to the PMIs

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs rebounded in February
  2. PMIs and economic growth set to decline ahead
  3. Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the picture

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se