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Emerging Markets

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — The industrial sector is fairly strong again

  1. Mixed PMI signals…
  2. …but October jump not reversed

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Decent activity indicators in October

  1. A mixed bag of numbers
  2. Property investments growth strong for now

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Trump wins the presidential election

Trump has won the American presidential election, and both the House of Representatives and the Senate have Republican majorities. The major uncertainty regarding President Trump's political agenda will probably lie like a wet blanket over the economy in the near future.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Industrial sector over the worst

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs increased to highest level in more than two years
  2. Process of scrapping overcapacity has come closer to an end
  3. Overall growth slowdown set to continue next year

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk