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Emerging Markets

Global macro forecast — A diverging world

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• US and China dictating the pace
• Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Emerging Markets — EM turmoil not the overture for a full-blown crisis

Some emerging markets (EM) have experienced very severe stock market losses and currency weakening this year, particularly since mid-April, and hardly any EMs have avoided the fallout from a stronger USD and tighter global liquidity. On various vulnerability indicators, several EMs (including Argentina and Turkey) indeed look fragile, and we have most likely not seen the worst yet. On the other hand, the current turmoil should not be the beginning of a widespread EM crisis, in our view, as EMs on aggregate are not much worse off now than before the two most recent EM asset sell-offs.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty


Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Growth was still strong in Q3

  1. GDP growth fell only marginally to 6.8 percent in Q3
  2. Monthly indicators improved in September

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se