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Emerging Markets

Fast Comment China — China’s economy started 2017 on a fairly strong note according to the PMIs

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs rebounded in February
  2. PMIs and economic growth set to decline ahead
  3. Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the picture

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Macro Comment India — Modi’s reform agenda necessary to sustain high growth

In recent quarters, the Indian economy did not perform as well as before. Fixed investment has been falling, while personal consumption spending has been holding up. Our view is that the problems are temporary and that GDP will continue to grow annually by 7.5 percent in the coming years. Additionally, demonetisation continues to throw its shadow over the economy, while Modi's new budget might be too optimistic.

Fast Comment China — Money market rates hiked

  1. Shift from monetary policy easing to tightening
  2. No dramatic monetary policy tightening ahead
  3. PMI from Markit signals growth will slow even without higher interest rates

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment China — Official PMI did not point to renewed growth slowdown in January

  1. Stable official PMI
  2. Growth will soon gradually slow again

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |