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Emerging Markets

Macro Comment India — Modi’s reform agenda necessary to sustain high growth

In recent quarters, the Indian economy did not perform as well as before. Fixed investment has been falling, while personal consumption spending has been holding up. Our view is that the problems are temporary and that GDP will continue to grow annually by 7.5 percent in the coming years. Additionally, demonetisation continues to throw its shadow over the economy, while Modi's new budget might be too optimistic.

Fast Comment China — Money market rates hiked

  1. Shift from monetary policy easing to tightening
  2. No dramatic monetary policy tightening ahead
  3. PMI from Markit signals growth will slow even without higher interest rates

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Official PMI did not point to renewed growth slowdown in January

  1. Stable official PMI
  2. Growth will soon gradually slow again

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — Politics take centre stage

US: Moment of truth for Trump
Eurozone: Strong finish to 2016 bodes well for 2017
Nordics: Drifting apart

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Official GDP figures indicate growth picked up late last year

  1. Remarkably stable 2016
  2. Monthly figures show mixed signals for December
  3. Several headwinds moving into 2017

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk