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Finland

Global Macro Comment — US and China step away from the brink; rate cuts in July (Fed), September (ECB)

At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stepped away from the brink and agreed on a temporary, but argua-bly fragile, trade truce. We have had rate cuts from the Fed next year in our forecasts for some time, but we now ex-pected to see them sooner. Despite it likely being a close call, we expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25bp in July and to deliver a cumulative 75bp of cuts early next year. We expect the ECB to adjust forward guidance in July, cut rates in September by 10bp and likely introduce quantitative easing thereafter.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Finland — Consumer confidence weakened to a near-term low

  1. Consumer confidence fell in June - CCI index renewed in 5/2019
  2. Two new components in the CCI index
  3. Subdued private consumption reflects increased consumer pessimism

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Finland — Strong labour market improvement is behind us – stabilisation ahead

  1. Unemployment rate (SA) remained at 6.6 percent in May
  2. Employment rate edged up to 72.6 percent
  3. We expect the unemployment rate to bottom out in 2019-20

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Markkinakatsaus — Viikko 25/2019

• Kauppakonfliktin leimahtaminen uhkaa globaalia kasvua

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Markkinakatsaus — Viikko 24/2019

• EKP:n korkoelvytykselle ei näy loppua
• USA:n työmarkkinat kenties hiljalleen heikentymässä

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Markkinakatsaus — Viikko 23/2019

• Italian budjettivääntö jälleen pöydällä

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se