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Fast Comment FinlandLabour market improvement somewhat more gradual than previously reported

  1. Unemployment rate (SA) 7.5 percent in August
  2. Employment rate near the official 72 percent target
  3. Labour market continues to perform robustly, yet not as strongly as was previously reported
Unemployment rate (SA) 7.5 percent in August
According to Statistics Finland's ILO/EU-compatible Labour Force Survey, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.5 percent in August 2018. Thus, the latest data reveal that the downward trend in seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate has not been as rapid as was previously reported. In a year-on-year comparison, the unemployment rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points.
Employment rate near the official 72 percent target
In August, employment increased by 64,000 people from a year ago level, while the number of unemployed decreased by 16,000 people y-o-y. The seasonally-adjusted employment rate remained in 71.8 percent, thereby, it is near but still slightly below Finnish governments target of 72 percent by next year. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate among young people (aged 15-24) was 17.3 percent, which is 2.2 percentage points lower compared to last year.
Labour market continues to perform robustly, yet not as strongly as was previously reported
The Finnish labour market continues to perform well, but the latest statistics show that during the past few months, the decrease in unemployment rate has been more gradual than was previously reported. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.5 in August, thus, the downward trend has been revised somewhat upwards as it was at first reported to having declined to 7.2 percent already in June. This revision to statistics was somewhat expected and with the current pace of labour market improvement, our unemployment rate forecast of 7.6 percent for this year (on average) seems to be well in line. As job vacancies remain elevated and companies employment expectations are still on high level, we expect employment to improve in the near term. However, the Finnish companies are also reporting labour scarcity as their biggest bottleneck to increase production and these recruitment difficulties are likely to restrict the pace of improvement.

 



Disclaimer

Janne Ronkanen

Senior Economist

Finland

jaro06@handelsbanken.se

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