Research
Tip: To personalise the research list, click the gear symbol above.


Choose type:


Fast Comment SwedenBusiness sector production in December: stronger than expected

  1. Production growth supports our view of accelerating GDP in Q4
  2. Construction sector continues to weigh on the total, despite a spike in December
  3. We continue to expect a gradual slowdown in coming years
Production growth supports our view of accelerating GDP in Q4
Today's December data for the production value index (PVI) was stronger than expected, with growth at 0.9 percent m-o-m (4.6 y-o-y; our estimates: 0.3/3.2). Worth mentioning is that the figure for December 2017 was revised down. Also the y-o-y figure for November is slightly lower than the last reading, especially for manufacturing. Nevertheless, the PVI figure for December and the revised production growth trend in 2018 support our view of accelerating GDP in the fourth quarter, after the negative Q3.
Construction sector continues to weigh on the total, despite a spike in December
Both manufacturing and construction sector production rebounded somewhat in December (calendar adjusted y-o-y, see graph below). Nevertheless, the dampening of the construction sector production continues to weigh on the total, and even though our view is that this will not spill over to the wider economy, leading indicators in general support slower overall PVI growth ahead. We continue to expect a gradual slowdown in the overall economy in coming years. More details are presented in our latest Global Macro Forecast report from January 30.


Accelerating growth trend in business production in 2018.  


Construction sector continues to weigh on the economy, but the calendar adjusted y-o-y figure is close to zero in December.


Sources: Statistics Sweden, Macrobond


Leading indicators point to slower growth ahead and we continue to expect a gradual slowdown in the overall economy.


Sources: Statistics Sweden, Macrobond


Disclaimer

Helena Bornevall

Senior Economist

Scenario Analysis

hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2019-02-18

Fast Comment Sweden

2019-02-14

Fast Comment Sweden

2019-02-13

Fast Comment Sweden