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Global Markets

Global macro forecast — Global tensions - but no recession

• Challenging road ahead for the Nordics
• Monetary policy will ease but not remove the pain
• Markets will remain uneasy

Christina Nyman, Chief Economist | chny09@handelsbanken.se

Global konjunkturprognos — Globala spänningar - men ingen recession

• Mödosam väg framåt för Norden
• Penningpolitik mildrar men konjunkturen bromsar ändå in
• Finansiella marknader fortsatt skakiga

Christina Nyman, Chief Economist | chny09@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — US and China step away from the brink; rate cuts in July (Fed), September (ECB)

At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stepped away from the brink and agreed on a temporary, but argua-bly fragile, trade truce. We have had rate cuts from the Fed next year in our forecasts for some time, but we now ex-pected to see them sooner. Despite it likely being a close call, we expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25bp in July and to deliver a cumulative 75bp of cuts early next year. We expect the ECB to adjust forward guidance in July, cut rates in September by 10bp and likely introduce quantitative easing thereafter.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Meagre shelter for the global economy

• Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
• Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
• Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Global konjunkturprognos — Världsekonomin klent rustad

• Konjunkturavmattning med svag tillväxt länge
• Seglivad politisk oro, hushållen alltmer försiktiga
• Centralbanker byter kurs men verktygslådan skramlar tomt

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se