Global Markets

Global macro forecast — Brighter outlook, but heavy clouds over Club Med

US weathers fiscal cliff headwinds
Eurozone: No room for ECB hikes before 2018
China: Containing risk at the cost of growth
Sweden: Growth recovery, but little boost for employment

Jan Häggström, Head of Macro Research | jaha05@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Widening rift in the eurozone to haunt markets again

China: Slowdown coming earlier than expected
Eurozone: The German locomotive has decoupled
US: Optimism is back, despite persistent problems
Sweden: Brighter employment outlook, but sluggish GDP path
Bond markets: Long bond yields to rise at a moderate pace

Jan Häggström, Head of Macro Research | jaha05@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Eurozone still a global headache

China: Overheating concerns resurfacing
Eurozone: No room for ECB rate hikes before 2016-17
US: Fed to hike in mid-2014, not in mid-2015 as it states
Sweden: Rebound expected after marked drop in Q4 GDP

Jan Häggström, Head of Macro Research | jaha05@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Asia Pacific fuels global trade recovery

China: Freedom of speech an important test for new leadership
Eurozone: Heading for increased divergence
US: A new deal or government shutdown
Sweden: Virtually all sectors now face headwinds

Jan Häggström, Head of Macro Research | jaha05@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — Emerging Asia versus submerging Europe

Global recovery, but Southern Europe in 1930s depression

US: Time to admit that Fed has done enough
Eurozone: Southern discomfort
China: Structural inefficiencies preventing 8 percent growth
Sweden: Muddling through 2013, dodging recession

Jan Häggström, Head of Macro Research | jaha05@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — The longest hangover in the world

China: Growth strengthening, no new policy signals
Eurozone: Recession deepens
US: Bipartisan cooperation or recession
Sweden: Industrial decline to prompt further GDP deceleration

Jan Häggström, Head of Macro Research | jaha05@handelsbanken.se