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Global Markets

Global makrokommentar — Kan Trump rulla tillbaka globaliseringen?

President Trump hävdar att länder med stora handelsöverskott stjäl jobb från USA. Därför vill han omför-handla de nuvarande handelsavtalen som har gjort det möjligt att flytta amerikanska jobb till lågkostnads-länder. Historiskt har emellertid ensidiga försök att flytta jobb mellan länder fungerat dåligt. På 1930-talet ledde det till aggressiva handelskrig. Vår uppfattning är att sannolikheten för ett fullskaligt globalt han-delskrig framöver är liten eftersom inga politiker inklusive Trump egentligen vill återvända till 1930 talets handelskrig.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Politics take centre stage

US: Moment of truth for Trump
Eurozone: Strong finish to 2016 bodes well for 2017
Nordics: Drifting apart

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se