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Global Market

Global Macro Forecast — Meagre shelter for the global economy

• Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
• Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
• Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Global konjunkturprognos — Världsekonomin klent rustad

• Konjunkturavmattning med svag tillväxt länge
• Seglivad politisk oro, hushållen alltmer försiktiga
• Centralbanker byter kurs men verktygslådan skramlar tomt

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global konjunkturprognos — Världsekonomin på skakig grund

• Nu vänder konjunkturen ned
• Upp till bevis för politikerna
• Räntorna förblir låga

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Global konjunkturprognos — Räntehöjningar trots lägre tillväxt

• Geopolitiska risker dominerar
• Fortsatt splittrad bild av världskonjunkturen
• Världens centralbanker trotsar oro
• Riksbanken fortsätter med räntehöjningar efter vinterns första steg