Global macro forecast — A diverging world

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• US and China dictating the pace
• Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty

Global Comment — Fears of trade war intensifying

1. Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs of up to USD 60bn on Chinese imports
2. Markets reacted with broad-based significant risk aversion
3. Chinese retaliation might be on the cards

Global Konjunkturprognos - uppdatering — Mogen konjunktur förändrar riskbilden

• Stark inledning på 2018 - svagare avslutning
• Medvindar mojnar för tillgångsmarknader
• Uppåtrisk för inflation och räntor

Global Macro Forecast - update — Mature business cycle changes the risk profile

• Strong start to 2018, but a weaker ending
• Asset price tailwinds subsiding
• Upside risks to inflation and interest rates