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Global Market

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Monthly Macro Update — Politics take centre stage

US: Moment of truth for Trump
Eurozone: Strong finish to 2016 bodes well for 2017
Nordics: Drifting apart

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Global makrokommentar — Trump mer inriktad på förhandlingar än handelskrig

Det är osannolikt att Donald Trump kommer att börja sin mandatperiod med att införa höga tullar på import från Mexiko och Kina, trots att han har makten att göra detta utan kongressens godkännande. Snarare vill "superförhandlaren" Trump behålla detta hot i bakfickan och inleda förhandlingar med dessa länder för att förbättra USA:s handelsvillkor. Vi ser liten sannolikheten för ett större handelskrig, trots Trumps vallöften.