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Global Market

Global macro forecast — Economic growth has already peaked

• Cyclical and structural factors dampen growth
• Increased risk of a slump
• Monetary and fiscal policy out of ammunition
• Demographics push down interest rates

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global makrokommentar — Spänningen stiger inför valet i USA

Presidentvalet i USA om en dryg månad ser ut att bli en rysare. De senaste opinionsundersökningarna pekar på att det är mycket jämt mellan demokraternas kandidat Hillary Clinton och den kontroversiella utmanaren på den republikanska sidan Donald Trump. Den senares olika utspel om allt från utrikeshandel till skatter kontrasterar skarpt mot såväl den nuvarande politiken som Hillary Clintons program. Om Trumps idéer verkligen skulle prägla den ekonomiska politiken framöver finns det anledning att oroa sig. Sannolikheten för detta är dock relativt låg. Oavsett hur det går i presidentvalet kommer kongressen utgöra en balanserande faktor. De ekonomiska konsekvenserna av valet kommer förmodligen visa sig vara ganska begränsade.

Global Macro Comment — Brexit really does mean Brexit, but what will Brexit mean? Impressions from our London meetings

We had a series of meetings with economists, political analysts and even a real estate company in London on September 26-27, with the aim of obtaining deeper insight into the British economy after the Brexit vote and how the process of leaving the EU is unfolding. We left with a number of interesting impressions, although we note there were different views among those we met about how the Brexit process will unfold, and whether or not the outcome will be a 'hard' or 'soft' Brexit.

Our key impressions:
• The likelihood of the UK government backing away from the Brexit process is very low, as is the likelihood of a new Brexit referendum.
• The Autumn Statement might include some further government spending, but it is not likely that it will be very generous, given that government finances already are stretched.
• The process within the British government to devise a proposal that deals with basic issues (immigration and trade) before invoking Article 50 will take time, meaning that the UK probably will not start negotiations early next year.
• The Brexit negotiations will be extremely complicated and difficult to resolve given the number of governments that must provide approval; some even deemed it impossible under the current rules.
• There appears to be some rather cautious optimism in the property market, but it remains unclear what will happen with foreign investments.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — The fog of uncertainty persists

US: A new Fed pace of 25bp per year
Eurozone: Brexit cements modest growth further ahead
Sweden: Rapid growth deceleration expected to end
Featured themes: Brexit in motion and European banks

Global Macro Comment — Brexit in motion

The outcome of the UK's EU referendum came as a surprise to most. While the immediate impact on markets was dramatic, prices have largely since recovered. The effects on the real economy are expected to be significant but generally limited to the UK. The new government seems determined to follow through on the referendum decision, leaving the world preparing for the UK's exit from the world's largest free-trade zone. Prime Minister Theresa May said that she wants to formally begin the exit process in January next year. Negotiations could last for up to two years, which is a long time given current events in the EU and UK.

Global makrokommentar — Brexit i rullning

Resultatet av Storbritanniens folkomröstning blev en överraskning för de flesta. Den omedelbara marknadsreaktionen var dramatisk, men sedan dess har priserna i hög grad återställts. Effekterna på realekonomin förväntas bli betydande, men mestadels vara begränsade till Storbritannien. Den nya brittiska regeringen verkar fast besluten att följa beslutet, och omvärlden förbereder sig nu för ett brittiskt utträde ur världens största frihandelszon. Storbritanniens premiärminister Theresa May har sagt att hon vill lämna in den officiella utträdesansökan i januari nästa år. Efter det kan förhandlingarna pågå i upp till två år, vilket är en lång period och mycket kan hända fram tills dess i EU och Storbritannien.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se