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Global Macro Forecast

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — US toward recession

• Europe pressured by structural problems
• The economic and political toolbox is empty
• Low growth in the Nordics

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — Economic growth has already peaked

• Cyclical and structural factors dampen growth
• Increased risk of a slump
• Monetary and fiscal policy out of ammunition
• Demographics push down interest rates

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — Patchy recovery with bright spots

- US: Lower interest rate peak
- Eurozone: Still out of sync
- United Kingdom: Brexit or "Bremain"?
- Nordics: Mostly headwinds but strong tailwinds for Sweden
- Commodities: Doha meeting changed the risk profile for oil prices

Global macro forecast — Immigration a challenge for Europe

- US: More weight on actual inflation after the initial liftoff
- China: Growth slowdown on pause - rebalancing continues
- Eurozone: ECB rides to the rescue again
- Sweden: Full steam ahead

Global macro forecast — The new normal

- Potential growth and monetary policy: 1.5 is the new 3
- US: Gradual rate increases followed by a low peak
- Eurozone: Strong euro delays recovery
- China: Struggling to keep going
- Sweden: Approaching a cyclical peak