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Global Macro Forecast

Global macro forecast — Economic growth has already peaked

• Cyclical and structural factors dampen growth
• Increased risk of a slump
• Monetary and fiscal policy out of ammunition
• Demographics push down interest rates

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — Patchy recovery with bright spots

- US: Lower interest rate peak
- Eurozone: Still out of sync
- United Kingdom: Brexit or "Bremain"?
- Nordics: Mostly headwinds but strong tailwinds for Sweden
- Commodities: Doha meeting changed the risk profile for oil prices

Global macro forecast — Immigration a challenge for Europe

- US: More weight on actual inflation after the initial liftoff
- China: Growth slowdown on pause - rebalancing continues
- Eurozone: ECB rides to the rescue again
- Sweden: Full steam ahead

Global macro forecast — The new normal

- Potential growth and monetary policy: 1.5 is the new 3
- US: Gradual rate increases followed by a low peak
- Eurozone: Strong euro delays recovery
- China: Struggling to keep going
- Sweden: Approaching a cyclical peak

Global macro forecast — Central banks cannot fix it all

- US: Fed remains on track for a first rate rise this year
- Eurozone: Deflationary pressures despite economic recovery
- Labour market and wages: Labour markets improve, but what about wages?
- China: Deceleration continues
- Sweden: Not a lot of slack in the labour market

Global macro forecast — Oil price boosts global growth

- US: A balancing act between bubbles and bond selloffs
- Eurozone: ECB can avoid deflation by following the Bank of Japan
- China: Accelerating slowdown
- Sweden: Riksbank to start hiking the repo rate in 2015, not 2016