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Norwegian Macro Forecast

Macro Forecast Norway — Norway inching in the right direction

• International momentum threatened by political uncertainty and oil market
• Gradual improvement to Norwegian economy, but notable downside risks
    - Housing market is pulling much of the load
    - Foreign trade vulnerable to international changes
• Norges Bank¡¦s dilemma: high housing prices, but low inflation
• NOK exchange rate expected sideways the next six months

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — The headwinds have subsided – what now?

• High political risk and downward revision to international growth prospects
• Most of the fall in oil investment is behind us, but growth drivers are few
• Potential growth in Norway is lower than before - less room for real wage growth
• Norges Bank will not be able to raise rates in the foreseeable future

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — Headwinds from all sides

- Chinese slowdown, stagnating productivity and global political uncertainty
- Norway remains a high-cost country, which slows down the rebalancing process
- Households rein in spending due to high uncertainty and stricter banks
- Negative interest rates and a bulging state war chest can still prevent recession

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — Do we have a crisis yet?

- Weak demand growth globally limits upside for Norwegian exports
- Modest effects from substantial NOK weakening
- Unemployment rising, but curbed by discouraged workers
- More expansionary policy coming, zero rates just around the corner

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — Lower growth and painful transition

- Ripple effects of drop in oil and gas activity unfolding
- Mainland GDP growth below 1 percent
- Wage growth falling to 2 percent
- Two more rate cuts

Macro Forecast Norway — Soon out of gas

- Oil and gas investment falling
- Mainland growth slowing
- Policy rate unchanged; risk of a cut
- Volatile NOK, risk of further weakening