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Norwegian Macro Forecast

Macro Forecast Norway — Cruising speed, but increasing turbulence

• Norwegian oil heating counters global cooling
• Interest rates on the way up, but not by much
• "Goldilocks" housing market; not too hot, not too cold
• Increasing protectionism is a downside risk to the outlook

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — Close to the peak

• Global growth and petroleum investments boost the Norwegian economy
• Mainland GDP growth will probably moderate from next year
• Wage growth is picking up, but will not reach previous heights
• Interest rates are increasing, but will remain manageable

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — Look out for speed bumps

• Housing market has buoyed GDP growth, but will soon act as a drag
• Slack in the labour market will contribute to moderate wage growth
• Weakening growth globally to weigh on the Norwegian economy from 2019

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — Norway inching in the right direction

• International momentum threatened by political uncertainty and oil market
• Gradual improvement to Norwegian economy, but notable downside risks
    - Housing market is pulling much of the load
    - Foreign trade vulnerable to international changes
• Norges Bank¡¦s dilemma: high housing prices, but low inflation
• NOK exchange rate expected sideways the next six months

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — The headwinds have subsided – what now?

• High political risk and downward revision to international growth prospects
• Most of the fall in oil investment is behind us, but growth drivers are few
• Potential growth in Norway is lower than before - less room for real wage growth
• Norges Bank will not be able to raise rates in the foreseeable future

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Macro Forecast Norway — Headwinds from all sides

- Chinese slowdown, stagnating productivity and global political uncertainty
- Norway remains a high-cost country, which slows down the rebalancing process
- Households rein in spending due to high uncertainty and stricter banks
- Negative interest rates and a bulging state war chest can still prevent recession

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no