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Fast Comment Norway — CPI-ATE unchanged in June at 2.3 percent, slightly below expectations

  1. CPI-ATE unchanged at 2.3 percent, expected 2.4 percent
  2. Deviation too small to affect the key policy rate path
  3. Rate hike in September still a possibility; signalled at about a 70 percent chance by Norges Bank

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Core inflation in June

  1. The CPI-ATE expected slightly higher again in June; 2.4 pct, following 2.3 pct in May
  2. In line with Norges Bank; hence, neutral to the key policy rate path
  3. Recall the additional volatility in the CPI-ATE during the summer months

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Manufacturing output: Strong production growth, driven by oil-supplying industries

  1. Manufacturing output increased further in May; well above expectations
  2. Particularly high activity in petroleum-related manufacturing
  3. Non-oil manufacturing sector slowing on the back on weaker global demand

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Housing prices rose further in June

  1. Housing prices up by 0.6 percent in June, following 0.5 percent in May
  2. Some price acceleration over the past 2 months
  3. We remind about our positive call for the housing market in 2019

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Morgenrapport Norge —

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Global Macro Comment — US and China step away from the brink; rate cuts in July (Fed), September (ECB)

At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stepped away from the brink and agreed on a temporary, but argua-bly fragile, trade truce. We have had rate cuts from the Fed next year in our forecasts for some time, but we now ex-pected to see them sooner. Despite it likely being a close call, we expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25bp in July and to deliver a cumulative 75bp of cuts early next year. We expect the ECB to adjust forward guidance in July, cut rates in September by 10bp and likely introduce quantitative easing thereafter.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |