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Norway

Morgenrapport Norge —

Nils Kristian Knudsen, Strategist | nikn02@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Weak retail spending, but the figures are not weak enough to question a rate hike in March

  1. Retail sales plummeted in December, but total goods consumption was little changed
  2. Negative change in goods consumption in Q4 as whole, probably offset by consumption of services
  3. Neutral to Norges Bank; we maintain our call for a rate hike in March

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Morgenrapport Norge —

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Morgenrapport Norge —

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no