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All Norwegian Publications

Morgenrapport Norge —

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Morgenrapport Norge —

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Morgenrapport Norge —

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Morgenrapport Norge —

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Macro Comment Norway — Norges Bank to stick with March strategy

In March, Norges Bank indicated that the policy rate would be lifted by September this year. Beyond that, the central bank expected six more rate increases by the end of 2021. Since March, inflation has once again disappointed; in isolation, this suggests a lower policy rate path. On the other hand, the real economy is showing few signs of faltering and the oil price and housing market have been stronger than expected. We believe Norges Bank will present a forecast for the policy rate that is little changed from March, still indicating that the first rate increase will come in September.

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no