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Fast Comment Norway

Fast Comment Norway — Outlook for petroleum investments broadly in line with Norge Bank

  1. Petroleum investments expected to decline by around 9-10 percent this year (real terms)
  2. Investments will decline during H1 2017; then the contractions should start to ease
  3. The outlook is broadly in line with Norges Bank's projections

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Survey unemployment much lower than expected; sharp decline in labour participation

  1. LFS unemployment at 4.4 percent in December, down from 4.7 percent in Nov
  2. Much lower than expected; we and consensus had 4.7 percent
  3. Unemployment rate pulled down by a sharp decline in labour force participation

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Core inflation substantially below Norges Bank's estimate; downside risk to the policy rate path

  1. Core inflation at 2.1 percent y-o-y in January, following 2.5 percent in December
  2. Significantly below expectations; we estimated 2.4 percent, consensus at 2.6 percent
  3. Even greater deviation from Norges Bank's estimate at 2.9 percent; downside risk to the policy rate path

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Continued weak growth for Mainland Norway; close to expectations

  1. Mainland GDP rose by 0.3 percent in Q4; close to expectations
  2. No big surprises for the demand side of the economy
  3. Developments in line with Norges Bank's outlook

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Decline in manufacturing output levels out

  1. Manufacturing output rose by 1.1 percent in December, well above expectations
  2. Output contracted by 0.2 percent in Q4, compared to -1.5 percent in Q3
  3. Diminishing drag from the manufacturing sector

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Housing prices up by 0.6 percent (SA) m-o-m in January; in line with Norges Bank's estimate

  1. Housing prices rose by 0.6 percent m-o-m in January (SA)
  2. Growth in January in line with Norges Bank's forecast
  3. Annual growth rate is higher than forecast by Norges Bank, but the deviation is relatively small

Halfdan Grangård, Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no