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Fast Comment Norway

Fast Comment Norway — Survey unemployment much lower than expected; another sharp decline in labour participation

  1. LFS unemployment at 4.2 percent in January, down from 4.4 percent in December
  2. Much lower than expected; our and consensus estimate was 4.5 percent
  3. Unemployment pulled down again by a sharp decline in labour force participation

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — More dovish than expected from Norges Bank

  1. Lower inflation pushes expected rate hikes further out in time
  2. Real economy pulls interest rate up in the short term but pushes down further out
  3. Inflation becomes uncomfortably low; strategy might have to be abandoned

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Core inflation far below Norges Bank's estimate, but housing price concerns will leave the rate path unchanged in March

  1. Core inflation at 1.6 percent y-o-y in February, following 2.1 percent in January
  2. Somewhat below expectations; we expected 1.7 percent and consensus 2.0 percent
  3. The large deviation from Norges Bank's forecast is extended into February

Halfdan Grangård, Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Regional Network: Growth is picking up slightly faster than expected by Norges Bank

  1. Regional Network signals stronger GDP growth ahead
  2. Growth improvements appear to be broad-based
  3. Growth outlook slightly stronger than forecast by Norges Bank

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Manufacturing output increased by 0.2 percent in January, above expectations

  1. Manufacturing output increased by 0.2 percent in January, above expectations
  2. Probably too soon to conclude the trough has been reached
  3. More important information later today: the update from Norges Bank's Regional Network

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — House price growth still a concern for Norges Bank

  1. Seasonally-adjusted house prices up 0.6% m-o-m in February
  2. Annual growth rate of house prices up to 13.1% in February from 12.4% in January

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no