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Fast Comment Norway

Fast Comment Norway — Core slightly lower in June; as widely expected

  1. The CPI-ATE at 1.1 percent in June, slightly down from 1.2 percent in July
  2. Well in line with expectations, including Norges Bank
  3. Supporting Norges Bank’s arguments for a rate hike in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Core inflation expected to be slightly lower in June (due Tuesday)

  1. We estimate the CPI-ATE at 1.1 percent in June, down from 1.2 percent in May
  2. In line with Norges Bank
  3. The usual caveat: CPI-ATE is volatile throughout the summer months.

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Manufacturing output continues to surprise on the downside

  1. Manufacturing output fell by 0.7 percent in May
  2. Well below market expectations
  3. About zero percent growth over the past three months; weaker than generally expected

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Housing prices flatlined (S.A.) in June; somewhat below Norges Bank's estimate, but trivial forecasting error

  1. Housing prices flatlined in June, following solid growth in April and May
  2. Somewhat below Norges Bank's near-term estimate, but trivial forecasting error given the volatility
  3. Norges Bank is widely believe to hike its policy rate in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Housing prices in June and manufacturing output in May

  1. How long will the current price acceleration in the housing market last?
  2. Norges Bank is expecting to see a more moderate growth rate already from June
  3. Manufacturing output probably rose further in May

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Registered unemployment fell somewhat further in June; as expected

  1. Registered unemployment at 2.2 percent in June, as expected
  2. The seasonally adjusted rate edged down to 2.31 percent, following 2.34 percent in May
  3. Well in line with Norges Bank's short-term estimates

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no