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Fast Comment Norway

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Investment survey, retail sales, credit growth, registered unemployment

  1. Petroleum investment: fFirst point-estimate given for 2019
  2. Household debt growth cooling; retail spending probably increased further in April
  3. Further downtrend in registered unemployment

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: survey unemployment in March

  1. LFS unemployment expected at 3.9 percent; unchanged from February
  2. Solid employment trend, matching the data from the national accounts
  3. Labour force participation picking up from its cyclical drop

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Revised budget a non-event for financial markets; neutral to Norges Bank

  1. Neutral fiscal stance; fiscal impulse still calculated at 0.1 p.p
  2. Norges Bank has already taken this into account
  3. The big news today was the GDP numbers; supported the case for a rate hike in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Mainland GDP supports a rate hike in September

  1. Mainland GDP at 0.6 percent in Q1, matching our estimate
  2. Stronger than expected by consensus, well in line with Norges Bank
  3. The outlook for the real economy supports a rate hike in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Mainland GDP (Tuesday)

  1. We estimate mainland GDP growth of 0.6 percent in Q1
  2. Norges Bank expects 0.72 percent
  3. Even if we are proven right, the outlook is still supportive of a rate hike in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — CPI-ATE at 1.3 percent; significantly below Norges Bank

  1. CPI-ATE at 1.3 percent vs. market expectations of 1.4 percent
  2. Significantly below Norges Bank's forecast of 1.6 percent
  3. We still expect a rate hike in September, but weak inflation calls for a lowering of the policy rate path

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no