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Fast Comment Norway

Fast Comment Norway — Upcoming investment survey to overstate the y-o-y growth rate in 2019 (technical)

  1. Results from Q4 investment survey for oil and gas due tomorrow
  2. Whereas the outlook for 2019 is positive, the reported y-o-y rate is temporarily inflated
  3. Upcoming survey probably neutral to Norges Bank

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Another unchanged print for LFS unemployment; higher than projected by Norges Bank

  1. Unemployment continues to level out
  2. LFS unemployment unchanged at 4.0 percent in September
  3. Higher than anticipated by Norges Bank (3.7 percent)

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: LFS unemployment in September (Wednesday)

  1. Unemployment has more or less levelled out, due to the rise in labour force participation rate
  2. But with participation recovered, we continue to see scope for some lower unemployment ahead
  3. We expect LFS unemployment at 3.9 pct in Sep, following 4.0 pct in August

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Mainland GDP slowed by the drought

  1. Mainland GDP growth of 0.3 pct in Q3, below expectations; positive revisions to Q2
  2. Employment growth in line with Norges Bank
  3. We still foresee a rate hike in March 2019

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Mainland GDP continues to run above trend, pointing to another rate hike in March

  1. We expect mainland GDP growth of 0.6 percent in Q3
  2. Marginally below Norges Bank, but still above the potential for the economy
  3. Pointing to another rate hike in March

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Sharp drop in CPI-ATE; although neutral to the key policy rate

  1. CPI-ATE at 1.6 percent in October, sharply down from 1.9 percent in August and September
  2. We and consensus expected 1.8 percent
  3. But matching Norges Bank's estimate; neutral to the key policy rate

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no