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Fast Comment NorwayRegional Network: the growth outlook remains favourable

  1. Small changes to the growth signals...
  2. ...suggesting mainland GDP growth of 2.6 percent this year, matching Norges Bank's estimate
  3. Norges Bank’s assessment of a rate rise in September remains intact
Norges Bank’s assessment of a rate rise in September remains intact
According to the contacts in Norges Bank’s Regional Network, the growth outlook remains favourable. Growth over the past three months has been around 0.62 percent, whereas the outlook for the next six months is expected to hover around 0.74 percent q-o-q. As we expected, there were just minor changes to the reported growth signals. Here, we had highlighted (1) the tracker of financial news, FNI-Retriever/CAMP (BI), which had improved further, and weighted this against (2) the 12-month expectations from Norges Bank’s Expectations Survey, which showed stable growth signals. To dig a bit more into the details, the Network’s growth reporting for the past three months was lowered slightly from the previous survey, whereas the six-month outlook was lifted slightly. Overall though, we struggle to see any difference on average. Recall that actual GDP growth in Q1 was somewhat weaker than expected by Norges Bank. However, when taking the updated signals from the Network at face value, the outlook is for mainland GDP growth of 2.6 percent this year, which matches Norges Bank’s estimate exactly. We have anticipated 2.5 percent, which is in the same ballpark. On the contrary, Statistics Norway has anticipated 2.1 percent, which we do not find very likely given the latest signals from the Network. Further details reveal that employment growth will hold up well, fairly in line with the actual pace observed so far this year. Overall capacity utilisation is also increasing further. All told, Norges Bank’s assessment of a rate rise in September remains intact.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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