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Fast Comment NorwayRegistered unemployment fell somewhat further in June; as expected

  1. Registered unemployment at 2.2 percent in June, as expected
  2. The seasonally adjusted rate edged down to 2.31 percent, following 2.34 percent in May
  3. Well in line with Norges Bank's short-term estimates
Registered unemployment at 2.2 percent in June, as widely expected
The number of people registered as fully unemployed declined by 400 in June (seasonally adjusted). There was virtually no change in the number of people on government schemes and, thus, gross unemployment also fell by 400 people. The unadjusted unemployment rate, calculated from fully unemployed only (scheme positions are left out), was unchanged at 2.2 percent in June. This was as we and consensus had expected. Taking normal seasonal variations into account, this implies a slight further drop to 2.31 percent, following 2.34 percent in May, which appears to be well in line with Norges Bank’s short-term estimates. Digging into the fundamentals, employment growth remains solid, as evident from the latest report from Norges Bank’s Regional Network. However, growth in the labour force has picked up as well, owing to a recovery from the cyclical drop in participation. Whereas we (and Norges Bank) continue to see scope for some further unemployment decline, a rising labour force will, in isolation, continue to dampen the pace of this decline. All in all, the broad-based improvement of the labour market continues; rising employment and participation, in parallel with lower unemployment. This again supports Norges Bank’s arguments for a rate hike in September.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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