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Sweden

Sweden Comment — Preview of September sentiment indicators and August retail sales

  1. Retail sales growth likely eased in August, but still support decent consumption growth in Q3
  2. Overall sentiment to edge down, as expectations for business and consumer sentiment indicators are mixed
  3. Consumer confidence, all of a sudden, close to historical average, after a period of strength

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — A shift in tide for the EURUSD

The weak USD seen throughout the year will gradually feed into higher inflation, which in turn will lift interest rate expectations for the US and strengthen the USD.

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Unemployment in August

  1. Unemployment surprises on the downside and falls below the trend
  2. Positive employment trend is waning; unemployment moving sideways
  3. Growth data helps explain lower labour market momentum

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation in August

  1. Inflation still above the Riksbank's 2 percent target; marginal upside surprise
  2. Surprise driven by core inflation
  3. An even stronger foundation for the Riksbank to move toward a less expansionary policy

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Sweden Comment — Preview of August inflation

  1. No further rise in August, but the inflation rate remains elevated after spikes in recent months
  2. Plenty of tricky components in August, but the infamous package tour prices should be well-behaved this time
  3. Robust underlying inflation to move the Riksbank's policy sooner than it says, we argue

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Riksbank monetary policy decision

  1. The Riksbank on hold, as widely expected
  2. Cautious decision not to drive krona stronger
  3. Upward revision in medium-term inflation a sign of upcoming changes in policy stance

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se