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Sweden

Fast Comment Sweden — Upbeat sentiment remains in February

  1. Manufacturing confidence slightly weaker, as expected
  2. Consumer confidence roughly sideways, slightly higher than consensus
  3. Overall confidence slightly weaker, slightly higher than forecasts

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Makrobladet — Små prognosförändringar trots stor politisk osäkerhet

Att politiken stått i fokus på marknaderna under den senaste tiden har nog inte undgått någon. Det är framför allt nyhetsflödet från USA som dominerat. Den nya administrationen under President Trump har rivstartat och många förväntar sig åtminstone en tillfällig uppgång i ekonomin i kölvattnet på såväl avre-gleringar som finanspolitiska stimulanser. Hur det blir med den saken är dock fortfarande oklart. Trump har redan stött på flera hinder och det blir inte lättare när han behöver få igenom sina propåer i kongres-sen. I Europa planeras flera val som kan resultera i lika stora politiska förändringar som de vi har bakom oss. Trots all den politiska osäkerheten ser vi dock ingen större anledning att ändra vår syn på den globala ekonomin.

Gunnar Tersman, Economist | gute03@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — January inflation in line with expectations

  1. January CPIF inflation down to 1.6 percent (1.9 percent in December)
  2. January CPI inflation down to 1.4 percent (1.7 percent in December)
  3. We overestimated food prices; potential upside for February reading

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Flat unemployment rate at the start of the year

  1. SA unemployment rate in January at 6.8 percent
  2. Minor January forecast errors
  3. Limits to how low the unemployment rate will go

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se