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Fast Comment Sweden — Unemployment in February

  1. Unemployment way below expectations...
  2. ...but there are several caveats to today's reading
  3. Riksbank will get March unemployment data at a very late stage in decision making process

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices in February

  1. Housing prices decreased in February, according to HOX
  2. The stricter amortisation requirement may have played a role
  3. We expect weaker activity in March

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation in February

  1. Gap between the inflation rate and the Riksbank's forecast largely remains... for now
  2. Among the components, upside and downside surprises
  3. More broadly, we expect inflation to trend upward in 2018, closing the gap to the Riksbank's forecast

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Macro Comment Sweden — In defence of inflation

In the midst of an onslaught of renewed pessimism about the consumer price outlook, we once again wave the banner of a sustained positive inflation trend. Judging by questions from clients, talk among fellow analysts and commentary in the media, we would do best writing memos titled All Quiet on the Price Rise Front, Game of One-Offs - Price Hikes Stop Coming, or even Inflation and its Critics. However, after re-examining the cold, hard data, we conclude that a more positive tone is warranted and argue that inflation is still trending upward and is therefore bound to surprise many on the upside. We expect the March CPI to start confirming this, while tomorrow's February outcome will show that inflation was still muted last month.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices for February (Wednesday)

  1. Looking for signs of stabilisation
  2. Indications of stronger price increases for apartments than for houses in February
  3. A lot of focus on Stockholm and on tenant-owned apartments

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist |

Macro Comment Sweden — How will households react when interest rates are raised?

Today, Sweden's household debt ratio is at an all-time high, while interest rates are at an all-time low. The obvious questions arise: What will happen when interest rates are raised? How will households cope? Household margins seem to be satisfactory in terms of an ability to cope with higher interest rate costs. The main worry is over changes in household consumption and the effects on the economy that would follow. It is reassuring that household savings rates are at an all-time high; however, a risk remains of significant effects on consumption by the heavily indebted.

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist |