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Sweden

Swedish Comment — Swedish housing prices close to unchanged in June

  1. Small change in the seasonally adjusted number
  2. Prices are slightly higher than a year ago
  3. First half of July indicate stable prices for apartments in the big cities

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation drops below Riksbank target as years of fast energy price rises finally come to an end

  1. Inflation at lowest since early 2018, marking the start of a longer fall
  2. Will the Riksbank Executive Board look through this soft patch driven by energy prices?
  3. More dark clouds forming on the horizon - we stick to our forecast that the Riksbank will cancel planned rate rises

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Hawkish Riksbank will eventually find that it must cancel planned rate rises

  1. Riksbank keeps rate path, but we stick to our forecast for an unchanged policy rate through to 2021
  2. As fully expected, no policy rate cut today, but other elements partly surprised the market
  3. Global central banks signal policy easing, but lower policy rate in Sweden still far off

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — US and China step away from the brink; rate cuts in July (Fed), September (ECB)

At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stepped away from the brink and agreed on a temporary, but argua-bly fragile, trade truce. We have had rate cuts from the Fed next year in our forecasts for some time, but we now ex-pected to see them sooner. Despite it likely being a close call, we expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25bp in July and to deliver a cumulative 75bp of cuts early next year. We expect the ECB to adjust forward guidance in July, cut rates in September by 10bp and likely introduce quantitative easing thereafter.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Aktuell ekonomi — Kronan har försvagats, men är inte särskilt svag

I takt med att kronan har försvagats har debatten om orsaken tagit fart. Den har handlat om vilken roll Riksbankens penningpolitik har spelat, hur en generell ovilja att ta risk drabbar små öppna ekonomier som Sverige och hur den globala osäkerheten spelar in. I detta nummer av Aktuell Ekonomi fördjupar vi oss i de statistiska fallgropar som omgärdar jämförelser av priser i olika länder. Slutsatsen är att en betydande del av kronans försvagning de senaste tio åren kan förklaras av att priserna i Sverige stiger snabbare än vad traditionella inflationsmått har antytt. Därmed är kronans undervärdering inte så stor som många har hävdat och vår nya bedömning av jämviktskurser innebär att kronan väntas förbli på svagare nivåer än vi tidigare har räknat med.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Retail sales plunged in May but year-to-date trend remains healthy; Riksbank policy announcement and May business sector production in week ahead

  1. After a buoyant outcome in April, retail sales plummeted in May, but 2019 so far gives some boost to GDP
  2. Riksbank on hold next week but tweaks forward guidance, as solid inflation provides breathing space
  3. Cooling off on the economy continues and in May we think manufacturing has dragged down overall production

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se