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Sweden

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices in August

  1. Signs of small price movements in August
  2. The housing market continues to chug along
  3. Regional differences likely to continue

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — Political deadlock after inconclusive election

With almost a dead heat between the two blocs after Sunday's parliamentary elections, everything indicates that the process of forming a government will be protracted and complicated. Although the political situation looks to remain uncertain in the coming weeks, it is difficult to see this having a major impact on financial markets or the near-term macroeconomic outlook. However, it is a concern that the next government will probably not command enough support in parliament to really get to grips with some of Sweden's most pressing structural challenges.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Energy prices soar, still depressed core? Preview of August inflation

  1. Slight disappointment for the Riksbank is on the cards
  2. But CPIF inflation underpinned by persistent energy price rise, that will not turn around anytime soon
  3. Swedish GDP: look beyond consumption roller coaster of second and third quarter

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Political deadlock after inconclusive election

  1. The ruling center-left bloc and center-right Alliance are neck and neck
  2. Tricky to form a government; strong, decisive government unlikely
  3. Limited market reaction, but in the longer term the macroeconomic effects could be greater

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Aktuell ekonomi — Världen spretar och Sverige likaså

Utvecklingen i den globala ekonomin blir alltmer spretig. I USA är optimismen fortsatt hög medan vi sett svaghetstecken i euroområdet och Kina. Vår bild av att världskonjunkturen toppar i år står sig, och vi väntar oss en avmattning 2019 och 2020. Sverige fortsätter att utvecklas starkt, men även här spretar det. Tillväxten är hög och sysselsättningen stiger. Bostadspriserna verkar på väg att stabiliseras, men vi tror att byggandet viker. Vi räknar med en komplicerad regeringsbildning efter Riksdagsvalet, men med endast begränsade effekter på de finansiella marknaderna och på den ekonomiska utvecklingen på kort sikt. Vi tror att Riksbanken höjer räntan i år för första gången sedan 2011.

Christina Nyman, Head of Forecasting | chny09@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Slightly later rate hike but stronger conviction; follow up after Riksbank policy rate decision

  1. Somewhat dovish compared to our expectations, hawkish compared to market
  2. We forecast a hike in February 2019, considering the inflation outlook
  3. Upward pressure on short-term interest rates, stronger krona

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se