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Sweden

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Unemployment up in December, but Q4 overall an improvement

  1. Rise in unemployment in line with our expectations and mainly due to monthly volatility, as the last quarter in 2018 showed a fall overall
  2. We see room for improvement this year, but in our new report on January 30, we will repeat our outlook of higher unemployment in 2020
  3. However, the cooling labour market affects inflation with a lag and is not the main worry for the Riksbank right now

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices in December: Somewhat higher than expected

  1. The seasonally adjusted monthly figure continues to be positive
  2. Weaker development in Gothenburg in December
  3. Higher incomes to counterbalance the effect from higher rates and supply

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — CPI December: Inflation at Riksbank target. Again.

  1. More than two years of two percent
  2. 2019 to continue in the same fashion, we expect
  3. Today's CPI details signal that inflation will continue to soar in the very near term

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices in December, stable but slightly negative?

  1. We have seen a gradual stabilisation of housing prices in 2018
  2. Figures from Svensk Mäklarstatistik indicate a slight decline
  3. We stick to our analysis of stable prices this year, see further details in our macro comment

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — CPI December good news for the Riksbank, but what about 2019?

  1. Two full years with inflation at the Riksbank's target
  2. 2019 will start with rising underlying inflation, but not as fast as the Riksbank forecasts
  3. Clothing and travel prices are risks, but in different ways

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se