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Sweden

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production data mixed in September

  1. Production growth somewhat below expectations, but keep calm
  2. Manufacturing and services sectors still decent; construction weighs on the total
  3. Indicators support growth ahead, in line with our GDP outlook; new report out tomorrow

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — September puts retail back on track; foreign trade likely added to GDP in third quarter

  1. Plummeting goods imports as car sales stall
  2. Exports sideways in third quarter; all-in-all, it signals a positive net exports contribution to GDP
  3. Retail sales continue on a moderate growth trend

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Disappointment in headline sentiment data masks broad strength

  1. Consumers worry more about economic outlook
  2. October business survey a strong reading, contrasting yesterday's eurozone PMI
  3. Inflation outlook solid after more bouyant indicators

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Riksbank monetary policy decision manoeuvres cautiously toward winter hike

  1. Keeps guidance of "December or February" timing for first hike; policy rate today maintained at -0.50 percent
  2. Genuine uncertainty about the timing of first hike remains
  3. Amid this uncertainty, we stick to our February call for now

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Anticlimax in the making? Riksbank October decision due next week

  1. Main Riksbank scenario is unchanged repo forecast and communication
  2. We see first policy rate hike in February, but will we be forced to revert to our previous December call?
  3. Week ahead: key quarterly sentiment data to set tone for business cycle outlook

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Unemployment has picked up but labour market still strong

  1. Third quarter unemployment higher than forecast
  2. Driven by rising labour supply
  3. If demand stays high more jobs will be created, keeping unemployment in check

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se