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Sweden

Fast Comment Sweden — November business production shows GDP picked up toward end of 2018, but outlook weaker

  1. After series of brisk growth readings, expected backlash came in November business production
  2. But the business sector data still imply GDP pickup in fourth quarter 2018
  3. Outlook weaker, very much in line with our longstanding forecast of gradual cooling-off of Swedish economy

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Look through the monthly business sector production swings

  1. November Production Value Index to recoil after October spike
  2. Overall Q4 business production likely to lift GDP growth after Q3 scare
  3. Weakening sentiment and mixed orders data raise questions about growth ahead

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Aktuell ekonomi — Bomarknaden - hem, ljuva hem?

Vi räknar med att prisdrivande faktorer såsom stark sysselsättning och stigande inkomster vägs upp av större bostadsutbud och högre räntor, vilket resulterar i stabila bostadspriser framöver. Byggstarterna fortsätter sannolikt att falla 2019, men därefter räknar vi med en utplaning, givet bostadsbrist och starka hushållsfinanser. Det stora antalet bostadsprojekt som färdigställs 2019 kan utgöra en risk för priserna och skapa ytterligare huvudvärk för små bostadsutvecklare. Vi ser begränsade möjligheter att byta regional inriktning eller växla till byggande av hyreslägenheter. Då de mindre aktörerna har en liten betydelse för ekonomin som helhet tror vi de eventuella negativa effekterna blir små.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Riksbank monetary policy decision

  1. Dovish hike, but the Riksbank board is not unified in its decision
  2. Krona strengthens after opinions were split ahead of the December announcement
  3. We change our forecast to 0.0 percent at year-end 2019; risk for no hike at all

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — December sentiment surveys are good news for the Riksbank, but no rate hike tomorrow

  1. Manufacturing confidence keeps driving the economic boom
  2. Employment plans easing, but strong inflation outlook intact
  3. Riksbank on hold in December, but hike likely to happen in February

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Riksbank on hold, but economic boom keeps on rolling

  1. November inflation dip took Riksbank's December hike off the table...
  2. ...but sentiment surveys to confirm strong economic climate, underpinning inflation outlook
  3. Retail sales to rebound following last month's surprise plunge

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se