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Sweden

Macro Comment Sweden — Spotlight on fiscal policy as the economy slows

We expect a slowdown in Sweden and note that there will be little monetary policy ammunition left to stabilise the economy. Meanwhile, low public debt levels are creating the conditions for fiscal policy to take the lead. What is more, fiscal policy stimulus measures are more effective in a low interest rate envi-ronment of the type we have now. However,  the fiscal policy framework will limit the scope for action. Also, the range of effective fiscal policy stimulus measures that can be implemented quickly and at the right time will be limited. Therefore, there is a clear risk that stabilisation policy will be less robust than normal. We believe this could open the door to more unconventional economic policy, if the downturn becomes deep or prolonged.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Aktuell ekonomi — Allt ljus på finanspolitiken i nästa lågkonjunktur

Det är skralt med penningpolitisk ammunition för att stabilisera ekonomin i den annalkande lågkonjunkturen. En låg statsskuld skapar däremot förutsättningar för finanspolitiken att ta över stafettpinnen. Finanspolitiska stimulanser är dessutom mer effektiva i en lågräntemiljö. Men om de finanspolitiska ramverken ska respekteras är det finanspolitiska handlingsutrymmet begränsat. Vidare är även verktygslådan, med effektiva finanspolitiska stimulanser som snabbt kan sätts in i rätt tidpunkt, begränsad. Det finns därför en uppenbar risk att stabiliseringspolitiken blir mindre resolut än normalt. Det kan öppna upp för en mer okonventionell ekonomisk politik om lågkonjunkturen blir djup eller utdragen.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Green shoots early this year - March retail sales surprise somewhat to the upside

  1. Retail sales growth trend picking up
  2. But April can go either way with possible Easter effects
  3. We forecast healthy household consumption this year, including OK retail sales growth

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Riksbank April monetary policy decision

  1. Repo rate kept at -0.25 percent, but still a dovish surprise
  2. Lowered repo rate forecast, continued bond purchases
  3. We no longer expect any more interest rate hikes this cycle

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Three charts the Riksbank had wanted to see before the monetary policy decision announced today

  1. April sentiment surveys: headline indicators roughly in line with expectations
  2. More interestingly, construction sector medium-term expectations stay depressed...
  3. ...while overall resource utilisation and firms' inflation expectations remain quite high

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — March housing prices slightly up as the trend remains remarkably stable

  1. Housing prices up compared to a year ago, but start to 2019 not particularly strong
  2. Broad-based stabilisation in prices for existing homes, but concerns about new construction have not vanished
  3. Week ahead: plenty of interest in housing market developments (Riksbank, NIER Survey)

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se