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Sweden

Fast Comment Sweden — Calm down! Inflation is "low" but March reading offered little news

  1. Inflation remains far below Riksbank path, but no new surprises today
  2. Cases for both sides of the argument about hiking the policy rate or not
  3. Our main scenario is still a Riksbank hike in September

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Meagre shelter for the global economy

• Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
• Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
• Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production in February is one more sign of a cooling economy

  1. Downward revision to January, growth stalls
  2. Still high level of production, sustaining bright labour market
  3. New macro forecast report tomorrow!

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Inflation and production both slowing, but 2019 outlook differs between the two

  1. Inflation expected well below Riksbank's forecast in last reading ahead of policy meeting
  2. Harder to disentangle the signal from the noise, but we forecast near-term rise in underlying inflation
  3. Worsening outlook for business sector output

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Retail sales took a deep breath in February, ahead of dive into messy months affected by Easter holiday

  1. Rise in sales a welcome pause in between rollercoaster periods
  2. Base effects behind some of the pickup in annual sales growth
  3. Pessimism not spread throughout the sector and we expect household consumption to hold up this year

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Mixed signals from March sentiment indicators

  1. As expected, manufacturing confidence fell, but the move was sharper
  2. The signal has been visible in new orders for quite some time
  3. Overall, we see the outcome as neutral to our GDP forecast and stick to our Riksbank call

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se