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All Swedish Publications

Fast Comment Sweden — Smooth sailing, housing prices remain stable

  1. Housing prices rose slightly in April and remain higher than a year ago
  2. Flats and houses are, to some extent, two different stories at the moment
  3. Threats and opportunities, with shaky global backdrop but lower interest rates

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — April CPI rebounds as expected

  1. Inflation back at the Riksbank's target
  2. Outlook for 2019 still intact

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Prices, prices, prices! Triple treats in week ahead: CPI, inflation expectations and housing prices

  1. Expected pickup in April inflation might appear temporary at first glance...
  2. ...but we increase our near-term outlook, albeit maintaining a downbeat view for next year
  3. Are inflation expectations sliding, as the Riksbank governor claims? Plus, slight rise in housing prices expected

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production weighed down by manufacturing in freefall, but March PVI actually not that bad

  1. PVI weak in March, but overall the first quarter turned out as expected
  2. Is the manufacturing plunge a temporary hiccup, or an early sign of things to come?
  3. Riksbank minutes do not change our forecast for no further rate hikes this cycle

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Expect more proof of a cooling economy

  1. March business sector production to confirm that GDP growth spurt toward end of last year was temporary
  2. Leading indicators tell us growth will continue to decelerate ahead, as we have forecast
  3. In other news: Will minutes from Riksbank's April meeting shed light on the rebirth of a dovish majority?

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — Spotlight on fiscal policy as the economy slows

We expect a slowdown in Sweden and note that there will be little monetary policy ammunition left to stabilise the economy. Meanwhile, low public debt levels are creating the conditions for fiscal policy to take the lead. What is more, fiscal policy stimulus measures are more effective in a low interest rate envi-ronment of the type we have now. However,  the fiscal policy framework will limit the scope for action. Also, the range of effective fiscal policy stimulus measures that can be implemented quickly and at the right time will be limited. Therefore, there is a clear risk that stabilisation policy will be less robust than normal. We believe this could open the door to more unconventional economic policy, if the downturn becomes deep or prolonged.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se