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Fast Comment Sweden — CPI December: Inflation at Riksbank target. Again.

  1. More than two years of two percent
  2. 2019 to continue in the same fashion, we expect
  3. Today's CPI details signal that inflation will continue to soar in the very near term

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices in December, stable but slightly negative?

  1. We have seen a gradual stabilisation of housing prices in 2018
  2. Figures from Svensk Mäklarstatistik indicate a slight decline
  3. We stick to our analysis of stable prices this year, see further details in our macro comment

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — CPI December good news for the Riksbank, but what about 2019?

  1. Two full years with inflation at the Riksbank's target
  2. 2019 will start with rising underlying inflation, but not as fast as the Riksbank forecasts
  3. Clothing and travel prices are risks, but in different ways

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — November business production shows GDP picked up toward end of 2018, but outlook weaker

  1. After series of brisk growth readings, expected backlash came in November business production
  2. But the business sector data still imply GDP pickup in fourth quarter 2018
  3. Outlook weaker, very much in line with our longstanding forecast of gradual cooling-off of Swedish economy

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Look through the monthly business sector production swings

  1. November Production Value Index to recoil after October spike
  2. Overall Q4 business production likely to lift GDP growth after Q3 scare
  3. Weakening sentiment and mixed orders data raise questions about growth ahead

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Aktuell ekonomi — Bomarknaden - hem, ljuva hem?

Vi räknar med att prisdrivande faktorer såsom stark sysselsättning och stigande inkomster vägs upp av större bostadsutbud och högre räntor, vilket resulterar i stabila bostadspriser framöver. Byggstarterna fortsätter sannolikt att falla 2019, men därefter räknar vi med en utplaning, givet bostadsbrist och starka hushållsfinanser. Det stora antalet bostadsprojekt som färdigställs 2019 kan utgöra en risk för priserna och skapa ytterligare huvudvärk för små bostadsutvecklare. Vi ser begränsade möjligheter att byta regional inriktning eller växla till byggande av hyreslägenheter. Då de mindre aktörerna har en liten betydelse för ekonomin som helhet tror vi de eventuella negativa effekterna blir små.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se