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Fast Comment Sweden — Hesitant housing prices

  1. HOX Valueguard housing prices flat in August, as positive trend stalls
  2. Full-year 2019 still on track to register a price rise
  3. Upbeat mood in housing market remains, with stabilisation not yet affected by poor macroeconomic news

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Another labour market shock - unemployment now a concern for Riksbank and government

  1. Contrary to expectations and other signals from the labour market, unemployment rises after last month's shock
  2. Unemployment is trending uncomfortably high compared to Riksbank and government forecasts
  3. Adds to our view that the Riksbank will ultimately call off planned rate rises

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Economy has cooled more than we thought - revised historic national accounts; updated Q2 GDP estimate

  1. Our forecast for 2019 GDP looks too high, but probability for our below-consensus 2020 forecast rises
  2. Slow growth strengthens our call that Riksbank rate rises will ultimately be cancelled
  3. Are macro risks larger than we thought? Household savings much lower ahead of a deteriorating economy

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Downside surprise in August inflation partly temporary, but the Riksbank will likely face new disappointment this autumn

  1. Temporary factors weighed on inflation
  2. Inflation should pick up this autumn, but less than the Riksbank's forecasts; we stick to our call that a rate rise will be called off
  3. Inflation expectations show faith, but not unlimited faith, in the Riksbank

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: CPI August after Riksbank surprise; GDP to make us less confident in household sector?

  1. After yesterday's Riksbank surprise, inflation prints have resurfaced as key to policy monitoring
  2. August CPI report to sit well with the Riksbank, but September could be the start of a different story
  3. GDP Q2 includes review of entire national accounts: households' economy to appear less solid than thought

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Normalisation argument embodied – Riksbank's September announcement

  1. Riksbank stands firm on next rate rise, but eases hiking tempo thereafter sharply
  2. Another step toward a negative policy rate remaining for years to come
  3. In the shadow of a determined Riksbank, business sector production still holds up, for now

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se