- Setback in April for consumer confidence
- Significant weakening in manufacturing sentiment
- Weaker than expected Swedish sentiment in total
- Unchanged unemployment rate since March; a tad higher than expected
- April reading mainly close to expectations
- Higher-than-expected labour force participation an upside risk to unemployment rate outlook
En global återhämtning kommer sannolikt bli betydligt mer dämpad än återhämtningen 2009?2010. Ledig produktionskapacitet saknas i tillväxtländerna i Asien, vilket har resulterat i stigande inflationstryck. Vi räknar med en att se en nedgång där redan 2015. Återhämtningen 2013?2014 kommer att bli ojämnt fördelad över världen. Vi är positiva till USA på kort sikt, men skeptiska till eurokrisländerna också på lång sikt. Samtidigt riskerar den mycket expansiva penningpolitiken att skapa nya bubblor.
- April inflation significantly lower than expected
- SEK likely to factor into lower-than-expected prices on clothing and package tours
- Current core inflation really low
We forecast that inflation should be lower in April than it was March in terms of both CPI and CPIF. This follows from our April forecast that CPI and CPIF readings will each increase by 0.1 percent m-o-m. Our outlook on consumer prices remains unchanged, pointing to a longer period of subdued inflation. In the coming months, we project CPI inflation to trend around 0 percent and CPIF inflation about 1 percent higher.
- Industrial production up in April, above expectations
- Continued strength in IP orders
- Improved manufacturing prospects