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Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: December business production to confirm GDP pick-up toward the end of last year

  1. Mixed growth signals from hard and soft data
  2. NIER survey and PMI have at least one thing in common: good times now, worse to come
  3. We expect GDP to have finished 2018 on a strong note, but the sun is setting on the economic boom

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Broad-based dampening of economic confidence in January surveys

  1. Easing sentiment consistent with the sun setting on the economic boom
  2. Late-cyclical labour market strength supports the economy in the near term
  3. Medium-term outlook worsened, according to today's data

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Unemployment up in December, but Q4 overall an improvement

  1. Rise in unemployment in line with our expectations and mainly due to monthly volatility, as the last quarter in 2018 showed a fall overall
  2. We see room for improvement this year, but in our new report on January 30, we will repeat our outlook of higher unemployment in 2020
  3. However, the cooling labour market affects inflation with a lag and is not the main worry for the Riksbank right now

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices in December: Somewhat higher than expected

  1. The seasonally adjusted monthly figure continues to be positive
  2. Weaker development in Gothenburg in December
  3. Higher incomes to counterbalance the effect from higher rates and supply

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se