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Macro Comment Sweden — How will households react when interest rates are raised?

Today, Sweden's household debt ratio is at an all-time high, while interest rates are at an all-time low. The obvious questions arise: What will happen when interest rates are raised? How will households cope? Household margins seem to be satisfactory in terms of an ability to cope with higher interest rate costs. The main worry is over changes in household consumption and the effects on the economy that would follow. It is reassuring that household savings rates are at an all-time high; however, a risk remains of significant effects on consumption by the heavily indebted.

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview of next week's macro data

  1. No distinct rebound after last month's inflation drop... yet
  2. Unemployment estimated to remain below our January forecast
  3. Inflation expectations survey due Thursday and housing price data due Wednesday

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production in January

  1. Production growth has stopped accelerating...
  2. ...but it remains quite high after years of improvement
  3. Indicators suggest the near-term outlook is robust, in line with our GDP forecast

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — GDP growth picking up, but not a sigh of relief for the Riksbank as labour costs remain sluggish

  1. GDP growth accelerates from an already healthy pace
  2. The late-cyclical labour cost rise is stubbornly slow, the drag on inflation easing only gradually
  3. Retail sales off to poor start for the new year

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — February sentiment indicators

  1. ETI decreased slightly, but sentiment clearly stronger than normal
  2. Consumers slightly less confident about their own economic situation
  3. Weaker employment plans in the construction sector

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Thinking, fast and slow, in a week boasting a string of prominent macro indicators

  1. Crucial to dig deeper than headline indicators in Tuesday's sentiment surveys
  2. Will labour costs support the Riksbank's inflation target - Wednesday's National Acounts release not merely a GDP affair
  3. Will retail sales be revised down once more?

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se