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All Swedish Publications

Fast Comment Sweden — Riksbank monetary policy decision

  1. Dovish hike, but the Riksbank board is not unified in its decision
  2. Krona strengthens after opinions were split ahead of the December announcement
  3. We change our forecast to 0.0 percent at year-end 2019; risk for no hike at all

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — December sentiment surveys are good news for the Riksbank, but no rate hike tomorrow

  1. Manufacturing confidence keeps driving the economic boom
  2. Employment plans easing, but strong inflation outlook intact
  3. Riksbank on hold in December, but hike likely to happen in February

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Riksbank on hold, but economic boom keeps on rolling

  1. November inflation dip took Riksbank's December hike off the table...
  2. ...but sentiment surveys to confirm strong economic climate, underpinning inflation outlook
  3. Retail sales to rebound following last month's surprise plunge

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices in November: in line with expectations

  1. Small decrease in the monthly figure, but stable trend
  2. Similar trend for houses and tenant-owned apartments
  3. We expect a gradual stabilisation on the housing market

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — As safe as houses?

We expect upward price pressure from strong employment and income conditions to counterbalance increased supply and rising borrowing costs, resulting in a stable price trend ahead. Housing starts are likely to continue falling next year, but we think it will stabilise thereafter, given the housing shortage and strong household finances. The high number of projects up for completion in 2019 could pose risks to prices and bring further pain to smaller developers, especially given limited scope to change regional focus or switch to rental accommodation. However, the relatively low importance of smaller developers to the wider economy should mean that any fallout is contained, in our view.

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — November CPI not in tune with Riksbank's wishlist; we stick to our forecast for a February rate hike

  1. Inflation below Riksbank forecast for a second consecutive month
  2. Not in tune with the Riksbank’s view, unforgiving details
  3. With disappointing inflation, preference for a united board tips the scales to a February hike

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se