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All Swedish Publications

Fast Comment Sweden — Slightly later rate hike but stronger conviction; follow up after Riksbank policy rate decision

  1. Somewhat dovish compared to our expectations, hawkish compared to market
  2. We forecast a hike in February 2019, considering the inflation outlook
  3. Upward pressure on short-term interest rates, stronger krona

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Riksbank monetary policy decision

  1. Conflicting signals in a decision that surprised somewhat on the dovish side
  2. Will upcoming inflation prints be sufficient for the Riksbank to hike?
  3. Need to assess the Riksbank outlook

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production slump in July

  1. Shaky monthly data not a new trend
  2. Energy production fell while manufacturing growth is trending sideways
  3. Growth will be healthy in the future

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Business sector production weak and Riksbank on hold

  1. Production slump in July, but decent outlook going forward
  2. The Riksbank will stay on course for December hike, we expect
  3. Leaving no stone unturned: Are service prices about to become less of a worry for the Riksbank?

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Strong August sentiment indicators; acceleration in May and June wage data

  1. More signals that GDP growth will stay elevated
  2. It is just the weather! No drama in the retail sector
  3. Wages are rising faster: good news for the Riksbank

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Firming wage growth among last data points leading up to Riksbank's policy decision; preview of the week ahead

  1. July retail sales to remain rock bottom and turn around once extreme summer weather cools
  2. Strong overall sentiment masks some divergence among sector confidence indicators
  3. Two more months of hourly wage data expected to confirm higher wage inflation than last year

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se