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Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation in March: Riksbank to delay rate hike

  1. Inflation back in line with Riksbank forecast
  2. Driven by surprisingly high energy prices; underlying inflation also looks decent
  3. Riksbank to delay rate hike, as core inflation disappointment tips the balance

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: House prices in March (Monday)

  1. First month after the implementation of the stricter amortisation requirements
  2. We expect a fall in house prices in March, but continue to expect a soft landing
  3. New construction continues to add supply to the market

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview of March inflation

  1. Expect a surge in inflation...
  2. ...but the spike is temporary, as the CPI is once again riding the airfares rollercoaster
  3. Underlying inflation on an upward trend, giving the Riksbank an opportunity to stay the course at April meeting

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview of February business sector production

  1. Growth robust in the first quarter, in line with our GDP forecast
  2. Leading indicators support production growth next quarter as well...
  3. ...but some clouds seem to be gathering

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — March sentiment indicators and new NIER macro forecast

  1. Economic sentiment still elevated, supporting further strenghtening of business cycle in 2018
  2. Employment plans did not fall further - we will revise down our unemployment forecast
  3. The NIER remain more pessimistic than us on inflation, and revise down its Riksbank outlook

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Aktuell ekonomi — Ömsom vin, ömsom vatten på svensk arbetsmarknad

I år är det tio år sedan finanskrisen slog till, och dessutom dags för riksdagsval. Hög tid att göra bokslut för svensk arbetsmarknad, tycker vi. De senaste åren har präglats av exceptionell jobbtillväxt, med nära nog 200 000 fler sysselsatta i slutet av fjolåret än bara ett par år tidigare. Så kan beslutsfattarna slå sig till ro nu? Knappast. Arbetslösheten har sjunkit, men inte snabbt. Och bakom positiva effekter av det blomstrande konjunkturläget finns strukturella utmaningar med djupa rötter. Sammantaget finner vi ändå skäl att blicka fram mot resten av 2018 med försiktig optimism.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se