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Fast Comment Sweden

Fast Comment Sweden — No signs of confidence for labour market developments; June sentiment survey and May unemployment report

  1. Broad deterioration in sentiment, as manufacturing follows global climate downward
  2. Weakening leading indicators for employment
  3. Unemployment may already have bottomed out, trending above our forecast for 2019

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices rise in May; upward risk to our 2019 call for stable prices

  1. Annual housing price rise now steadily positive after a period of stabilisation
  2. Broad-based rise across the regions
  3. But risks to prices remain, and newly produced homes are still falling in price

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Solid May CPI report

  1. Indications of a pick up in underlying inflation, much in line with our near-term outlook
  2. Spike in hotel prices might have been partly temporary, but, overall, a solid inflation print
  3. Despite near-term strength, we think inflation will fade next year, forcing the Riksbank to cancel planned rises

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Swedish inflation a lingering bright spot as dark clouds form on economy's horizon

  1. May CPI report expected to show Riksbank hit its 2 percent target, again
  2. Underlying inflation has some additional upside in the near term...
  3. ...but headline CPIF inflation is under threat from an energy price meltdown

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production surges, putting it back in line with with GDP prints

  1. The April production value index data erases the tension compared to Q1 GDP and other indicators
  2. Leading indicators continue to suggest muted growth ahead, however
  3. Overall, we stick to the view of a gradual cooling-off, meaning the Riksbank's GDP forecast for 2020 appears optimistic

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Was poor household consumption in Q1 a temporary slump? April retail sales skyrocketed this morning

  1. Easter boost to food sales not cancelled by fall in durables, as we had expected
  2. But base case is recoil in May - Easter effect vanishes, indicators mixed and underlying weakness in overall Q1 household consumption
  3. Bottom line: we see decent consumption and retail outlook this year on the back of a strong labour market and income increases

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se