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Macro Comment Sweden

Macro Comment Sweden — In defence of inflation

In the midst of an onslaught of renewed pessimism about the consumer price outlook, we once again wave the banner of a sustained positive inflation trend. Judging by questions from clients, talk among fellow analysts and commentary in the media, we would do best writing memos titled All Quiet on the Price Rise Front, Game of One-Offs - Price Hikes Stop Coming, or even Inflation and its Critics. However, after re-examining the cold, hard data, we conclude that a more positive tone is warranted and argue that inflation is still trending upward and is therefore bound to surprise many on the upside. We expect the March CPI to start confirming this, while tomorrow's February outcome will show that inflation was still muted last month.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — How will households react when interest rates are raised?

Today, Sweden's household debt ratio is at an all-time high, while interest rates are at an all-time low. The obvious questions arise: What will happen when interest rates are raised? How will households cope? Household margins seem to be satisfactory in terms of an ability to cope with higher interest rate costs. The main worry is over changes in household consumption and the effects on the economy that would follow. It is reassuring that household savings rates are at an all-time high; however, a risk remains of significant effects on consumption by the heavily indebted.

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — The EURSEK revisited

The Swedish krona has weakened lately, and as we do not see any near-term triggers for a marked decline in the EURSEK, we revise our forecast for Q4 to 9.60 (previously: 9.30). Moreover, we now expect the decline in the EURSEK in 2018 to be less pronounced, as the main driver, namely a turnaround in the Riksbank's policy, is not on the cards until the second half of the year.

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — Mopping up the package tour mess: inflation to stay close to target over the summer, but will ease this autumn

Inflation will likely be dampened by multiple factors ahead, but is expected to trend close to target for many months to come. This near-term inflation boost is merely a transitory effect from package tour prices, and therefore something the Riksbank will look through. To explain why currently soaring inflation read-ings will not in themselves affect the Riksbank's decisions at the July and September monetary policy meetings, this article takes a look at the nitty-gritty of package tour prices.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — US money market reform weighs on STIBOR rates and SEK

• New US money market regulation pushes LIBOR rates higher
• Less incentive for the Fed to hike rates
• STIBOR rates are pushed lower through the FX swap market, hurting the SEK
• Situation unlikely to deteriorate much more 

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — Brexit: implications for the Swedish economy

In this note, we outline a short summary of possible impacts on Sweden in the event of a Brexit.