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UK

UK Comment — UK consumer price inflation eases in May

  1. CPI down to 2.0% and core CPI down to 1.7%
  2. Cost pressures also ease in May
  3. Inflation trend should not affect BoE’s decision – policy to be kept unchanged tomorrow

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK labour market remarkably resilient despite Brexit

  1. Unemployment unchanged and wage growth slightly stronger in April
  2. Economic activity is easing, GDP and IP numbers worse than expected
  3. Brexit will eventually increase unemployment, we believe

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK PMIs continue to signal stagnation

  1. Services sentiment pulled up by slight improvement in new orders
  2. Overall sentiment pulled down by manufacturing and construction weakness

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Theresa May is forced out – likelihood of a hard Brexit increases

  1. A Brexit hardliner will probably take over as PM, most likely Boris Johnson
  2. With a Brexit hardliner, the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit increases, in our view
  3. We adjust our pound forecast accordingly and expect a weaker pound ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — BoE in wait-and-see mode

  1. No change to policy; the votes were unanimous
  2. Forecast revisions mixed
  3. Brexit will prevent further hikes from the BoE, in our view

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global Macro Forecast — Meagre shelter for the global economy

• Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
• Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
• Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se