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UK

UK Comment — Preview UK Autumn Budget

  1. No big changes - fiscal policy to continue to act as a drag on GDP growth
  2. Pushed from both sides, but not much room for manoeuvre

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Services PMI stronger than expected in October, but details are soft

  1. Services PMI up to 55.6 in October from 53.3 in September, buoyed by new orders
  2. Services survey: employment weaker, backlog of work down and outlook muted
  3. Composite PMI suggests GDP growth of around 0.5% q-o-q, but cautious outlook

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Dovish hike from the Bank of England

  1. The MPC voted 7-2 to increase the bank rate to 0.5 percent, the vote to leave QE unchanged was unanimous
  2. Outlook little changed, hawkish language toned down
  3. 'One and done', we argue

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK Manufacturing PMI stronger than expected in October at 56.3

  1. Sentiment pulled up by new orders and employment
  2. Cost pressures and recent sterling strength reportedly weighed on activity
  3. Sentiment suggests output growth holding up into Q4

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Close call for the Bank of England

  1. Surprisingly hawkish signals from the BoE has made the market expect a hike next week
  2. A bad decision, in our view, but some members will probably want to hike
  3. Close, but we believe the majority of the MPC will prefer to wait for more proof

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK GDP growth stronger than expected in Q3 at +0.4% q-o-q

  1. GDP growth at +0.4% in Q3, up from 0.3% in Q2
  2. Growth buoyed by services and manufacturing, while construction output fell for the second quarter in a row
  3. Figures should not weigh too heavily on the BoE’s decision next week

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no