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UK

UK Comment — January inflation: in line with BoE and small impact

  1. Temporary effects from energy prices
  2. In line with the BoE prediction
  3. CPI overshadowed by Brexit

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Disappointing GDP number from the UK

  1. The lowest rate of expansion since 2012
  2. Businesses cut investment for a fourth consecutive quarter
  3. We continue to see 2019 growth of 1.3 percent

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

UK comment — Bank of England leaves rates unchanged - a touch more dovish than expected

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.75 percent, QE programme also unchanged
  2. Global economy revised down
  3. Same wording on monetary policy

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England: Its all up to Brexit now

  1. Monetary policy to be left unchanged
  2. Mixed data since the last meeing
  3. Brexit is as uncertain as ever

Lars Henriksson, Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se