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UK

UK Comment — BoE: monetary policy unchanged, but tone slightly more dovish

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.75% - decision was unanimous
  2. Economic development broadly on track, but increased global risks and intensified Brexit uncertainty
  3. Brexit will force the BoE to stay on hold for the next two years, we believe

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England: Policy on hold in September

  1. Inflation and GDP trends seem broadly on track with the BoE forecast
  2. Brexit uncertainty to prevent policy tightening ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK manufacturing PMI weakest in over two years

  1. Headline PMI index down to 52.8 in August from 53.8 in July - weakest since July 2016
  2. Export orders plunging - pulled down by cooling global demand, trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty
  3. Sentiment suggests downside to near-term sector output growth

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global macro forecast — A diverging world

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• US and China dictating the pace
• Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — UK CPI inflation increases to 2.5% in July, slightly lower than the BoE expected

  1. CPI inflation up to 2.5% in July from 2.4% in June; core CPI inflation unchanged at 1.9%
  2. Headline inflation buoyed by energy price inflation
  3. Inflation to decelerate ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK labour market numbers mixed

  1. Unemployment down to 4.0%, total pay down to 2.4% and regular pay down to 2.7% in June
  2. Unemployment pulled down by drop in labour force
  3. Trend in line with BoE expectations so far

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no