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Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist |

UK Comment — Public sector borrowing on track to undershoot OBR estimate for 2016/17

  1. Public sector net borrowing of GBP 9.4bn in January; December revised to GBP 4.7bn from GBP 6.9bn
  2. Borrowing so far in financial year 2016/17 down 21.6% vs. previous financial year

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist |

UK Comment — CBI survey shows UK manufacturers more optimistic than expected in February

  1. Manufacturing sentiment pulled up by strong domestic demand
  2. CBI sentiment data suggests healthy start to 2017 for manufacturing sector
  3. Housing market less hot according to Rightmove February numbers

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — Unemployment surprisingly low, but wage growth disappoints

  1. Unemployment rate holds steady, at 4.8%; claims fall sharply
  2. Wage growth lower than expected in January, at 2.6%, down from 2.7% in December

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — UK inflation somewhat lower than expected in January, but cost pressure is building faster

  1. CPI inflation 1.8% y-o-y in January, up from 1.6% in December (consensus: 1.9%)
  2. Core inflation unchanged at 1.6% in January (consensus: 1.7%); PPI input inflation highest since 2008
  3. Inflation probably not high enough for the BoE to lift rates, we believe

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |