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UK

UK Comment — Labour market trending roughly in line with the BoE’s expectation

    Unemployment rate falls further, to 4.4%; wage growth up to 2.1%Today’s labour market numbers were largely in line with the Bank of England’s (BoE) expectation. The unemployment rate for the three months to June fell to 4.4 percent, from 4.5 percent in May. The consensus expectation was for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged, at 4.5 percent. Average weekly earnings, both total pay and regular pay (excluding bonuses), increased by 2.

    Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — CPI inflation unchanged at 2.6% in July, in line with the BoE’s expectation

  1. CPI unchanged at 2.6% (consensus: 2.7%) and core CPI unchanged at 2.4% (consensus: 2.5%)
  2. Cost pressures high but abating; both PPI input and output inflation fell further
  3. The BoE expects inflation to increase a little further and reach its peak before year-end

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Manufacturing output flat in June as expected, but construction much weaker

  1. Industrial output buoyed by mining and quarrying, while manufacturing flat-lined as expected
  2. Construction output much weaker than expected

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — BoE judgement little changed from May

  1. MCP votes 6-2 to keep bank rate unchanged
  2. Assessment based on smooth Brexit
  3. We expect a harder Brexit to force the MPC to keep the bank rate unchanged for the next three years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — PMI suggests weak momentum into Q3

  1. Services PMI improves in July, but outlook subdued
  2. PMI suggests weak momentum in real economy

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Bank of England preview

  1. GDP and wage growth weaker than MCP expectations, labour market and inflation on the high side
  2. Momentum is sluggish
  3. A majority of at least 5 should secure unchanged monetary policy

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no