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UK

UK Comment — BoE is surprisingly hawkish

  1. Monetary policy unchanged, but three of eight MPC members wanted to hike the Bank Rate at this meeting
  2. Inflation has been higher than expected, but wage growth has been lower
  3. Brexit should keep the BoE on hold for next three years, we believe

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK wage growth data much weaker than expected

  1. Unemployment unchanged at 4.6%, as expected
  2. Rising claimant count suggests unemployment rate could increase ahead
  3. Wage growth ex bonus growth down to 1.7% y-o-y in April

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England; no change to policy

  1. Election result clouds outlook for real economy
  2. Momentum seems to be weakening
  3. Monetary policy expected to be unchanged; hawkish language possibly toned down

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Monthly Macro Update — Recovery phase is about to end

US: 'Goldilocks scenario' will not last long
Eurozone: Approaching balanced growth
UK: Brexit negotiations thrown into chaos
Nordics: Short-term resilience

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — UK election: Conservatives seem to have lost their majority

  1. Conservatives seem to have lost their majority: political uncertainty ahead, possibly new election
  2. Brexit could become softer; timetable looks even more stretched now
  3. Uncertainty bad for the GBP in the short term, but a softer Brexit could strengthen it in the longer term

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK election preview (corrected version)

  1. Exit poll at 22.00 GMT, clear idea about result around 06.00 GMT tomorrow
  2. The Conservatives look set to increase majority, but then 2016 taught us not to trust the polls...
  3. Outcome shouldn't affect Brexit much unless Labour wins

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no