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UK

Global Konjunkturprognos - uppdatering — Mogen konjunktur förändrar riskbilden

• Stark inledning på 2018 - svagare avslutning
• Medvindar mojnar för tillgångsmarknader
• Uppåtrisk för inflation och räntor

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast - update — Mature business cycle changes the risk profile

• Strong start to 2018, but a weaker ending
• Asset price tailwinds subsiding
• Upside risks to inflation and interest rates

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — CPI inflation looks to have peaked

  1. CPI inflation down to 3.0% in December, in line with consensus
  2. Cost pressures easing
  3. CPI inflation broadly in line with BoE expectation

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK industrial production in line with the consensus in November

  1. IP rises 0.4 percent in November, lifted by warm weather and manufacturing
  2. Manufacturing lowered by big drop in transport equipment
  3. Construction output grew less than expected; Brexit uncertainty affecting business

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — PMIs suggest current business has improved, but outlook uncertain

  1. Composite PMI lifted by services, but lowered by manufacturing and construction in December
  2. Current business provides support, while Brexit-related uncertainty dampens future expectations
  3. PMI suggests GDP growth of around 0.4 percent q-o-q in Q4

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — No new signals from the Bank of England

  1. BoE assessment broadly unchanged
  2. We still think the BoE is too optimistic about GDP and wage growth
  3. We expect the bank rate to remain unchanged at 0.5% over the next two years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no