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UK

UK Comment — UK numbers on the weak side of expectations

  1. Q1 GDP growth lowered, private consumption and net exports disappoint
  2. A Q2 rebound possible, but growth trend should weaken ahead
  3. Housing market weakening further; weaker-than-expected mortgage approvals in April

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — CPI inflation rises to 2.7% in April, in line with the BoE's expectation

  1. CPI y-o-y inflation up to 2.7% in April from 2.3% in March, core CPI inflation up to 2.4% from 1.8% in March
  2. Imported inflation should rise further, but domestic cost pressures remain weak
  3. We expect the BoE to remain the same for the next three years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Bank of England keeps policy unchanged, as expected

  1. Bank Rate kept unchanged at 0.25% on a 7-1 vote
  2. Medium-term CPI forecast lower due to weaker domestic price pressure
  3. We reiterate our expectation of an unchanged Bank Rate for the coming three years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England; we expect no change

  1. Economic growth has been slightly weaker; except for the unemployment rate
  2. The GDP forecast should be lowered, and the inflation forecast could also be reduced
  3. We expect no changes to the bank rate or to QE

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Services PMI better than expected in April, but future business expectations fell

  1. Services sentiment pulled up by incoming new business
  2. Future business expectations fell on concerns about consumer spending
  3. The PMI composite suggests improved GDP growth in Q2

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Construction PMI slightly better than expected in April

  1. Construction PMI up to 53.1 in April from 52.2 in March - pulled up by civil engineering
  2. New orders improved, but future business expectations weakened
  3. Sentiment points to some growth improvement, but upside probably limited

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no