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UK

Global Macro Forecast — High on risk, low on ammo

• Downside risks burdening global growth
• Consumers holding up
• Low interest rates are the new normal

Christina Nyman, Chief Economist | chny09@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Dovish BoE remains on hold

  1. Policy left unchanged; the decisions were unanimous
  2. Weaker global growth and Brexit uncertainty had led to further slowing of UK economy
  3. The BoE likely to remain on hold ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK inflation easing markedly in August

  1. CPI inflation down to 1.7% and core CPI inflation down to 1.5 percent in August
  2. Inflation below market expectations, but roughly in line with the BoE forecast
  3. We expect the BoE to sit perfectly still tomorrow

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Resilient UK labour market, but weakness starting to show

  1. Unemployment rate down, as labour force growth weaker than employment
  2. Wage growth could have reached its peak
  3. With Brexit unresolved, the BoE will likely sit still next week

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — PMIs suggest UK activity is stalling

  1. Composite PMI down to 50.2 in August from 50.7 in July
  2. All sectors indicate outlook is weakening
  3. New orders fall at fastest rate in many years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global macro forecast — Global tensions - but no recession

• Challenging road ahead for the Nordics
• Monetary policy will ease but not remove the pain
• Markets will remain uneasy

Christina Nyman, Chief Economist | chny09@handelsbanken.se