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UK Comment — Composite PMI weaker than expected in February at 53.8

  1. UK Services PMI down to 53.3 in February from 54.5 in January. Composite PMI down to 53.8 in February from 55.4 in January
  2. PMI suggests momentum has weakened

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — Construction PMI slightly up in February to 52.5 - weak momentum

  1. Construction PMI up to 52.5 in February from 52.2 in January (consensus 52.0)
  2. Sentiment pulled up by civil engineering but down by lowest growth in housing activity in six months
  3. PMI suggests that output growth will remain muted

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly but remained solid in February; consumer credit and confidence softening

  1. UK Manufacturing PMI down to 54.6 in February from 55.7 in January
  2. Manufacturing sentiment indicates output growth of around 3-4 percent y-o-y
  3. Mortgage approvals up, but consumer credit growth and confidence weaker

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist |

UK Comment — Public sector borrowing on track to undershoot OBR estimate for 2016/17

  1. Public sector net borrowing of GBP 9.4bn in January; December revised to GBP 4.7bn from GBP 6.9bn
  2. Borrowing so far in financial year 2016/17 down 21.6% vs. previous financial year

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist |