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UK

UK Comment — UK manufacturing sentiment a little stronger than expected in March

  1. Sentiment sideways since January
  2. New orders and employment pulled down, while output pulled up
  3. Sentiment suggests output growth could ease somewhat further

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — No change to policy from the BoE, but 7-2 vote could indicate next rate increase is close

  1. No change to policy; vote to keep bank rate unchanged was 7-2
  2. Outlook broadly unchanged
  3. We reiterate our expectation of a rate increase in May

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Data supports rate hike in May from the Bank of England

  1. Labour market data stronger than market expectations
  2. New information overall in line with BoE expectations
  3. No change to policy tomorrow, but watch for possible hints of a May hike

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Spring Budget: no major changes to outlook for fiscal policy or UK economy

  1. GDP growth revised up for 2018 but down for 2021-22
  2. Fiscal policy not much changed – still set to be contractionary in the years ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — PMIs stronger than expected in February

  1. Services sentiment pulled higher by incoming business, current activity and employment
  2. Despite tight labour market, cost pressure has eased
  3. PMI surveys suggest growth should hold up well in Q1

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Preview of the PM's speech today

    Today's speech unlikely to provide the clarity that Brussels is asking forPrime Minister May will give a speech on the UK’s Brexit vision today (expected at 13:30 GMT). Some of the content has already been leaked to the media, and it appears that the speech is unlikely to provide the clarity that Brussels is asking for. May’s problem is trying to reach out to Brussels but at the same time please both the very vocal Brexiteers in her own cabinet and the Remainers in her own party who are threatening to team up with Labour in coming votes in Parliament.

    Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no