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UK

UK Comment — UK election preview

  1. Exit poll at 10:00pm GMT, clear idea about result around 6:00am GMT tomorrow
  2. The Conservatives look set to increase majority, but then 2016 taught us not to trust the polls...
  3. Outcome should not affect Brexit unless Labour wins, in our view

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK Manufacturing PMI retreats somewhat in May

  1. Manufacturing PMI corrected downward in May to 56.7 from a three-year high of 57.3 in April
  2. Orders growth buoyed by domestic demand, as growth in export orders weakened
  3. Sentiment points to acceleration in manufacturing in Q2, albeit not too strongly

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK credit data on the weak side of expectations

  1. Unsecured credit growth holding up, but housing-related borrowing cooling
  2. Rate of mortgage approvals on the weak side of the BoE's expectations

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK numbers on the weak side of expectations

  1. Q1 GDP growth lowered, private consumption and net exports disappoint
  2. A Q2 rebound possible, but growth trend should weaken ahead
  3. Housing market weakening further; weaker-than-expected mortgage approvals in April

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — CPI inflation rises to 2.7% in April, in line with the BoE's expectation

  1. CPI y-o-y inflation up to 2.7% in April from 2.3% in March, core CPI inflation up to 2.4% from 1.8% in March
  2. Imported inflation should rise further, but domestic cost pressures remain weak
  3. We expect the BoE to remain the same for the next three years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Bank of England keeps policy unchanged, as expected

  1. Bank Rate kept unchanged at 0.25% on a 7-1 vote
  2. Medium-term CPI forecast lower due to weaker domestic price pressure
  3. We reiterate our expectation of an unchanged Bank Rate for the coming three years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no