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UK

UK Comment — Manufacturing PMI picks up somewhat at the end of Q3 - up to 53.8 in September

  1. Sentiment pulled higher by improvement in new orders and output
  2. Price pressure remains high
  3. Output index still points to further deceleration in manufacturing output growth

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Consumer price inflation stronger than expected in August

  1. Consumer price inflation picked up in August, but producer price inflation fell back slightly
  2. Inflation pulled up by some rather volatile components
  3. Sterling effect signals further downside to CPI inflation

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — BoE: monetary policy unchanged, but tone slightly more dovish

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.75% - decision was unanimous
  2. Economic development broadly on track, but increased global risks and intensified Brexit uncertainty
  3. Brexit will force the BoE to stay on hold for the next two years, we believe

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England: Policy on hold in September

  1. Inflation and GDP trends seem broadly on track with the BoE forecast
  2. Brexit uncertainty to prevent policy tightening ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK manufacturing PMI weakest in over two years

  1. Headline PMI index down to 52.8 in August from 53.8 in July - weakest since July 2016
  2. Export orders plunging - pulled down by cooling global demand, trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty
  3. Sentiment suggests downside to near-term sector output growth

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global macro forecast — A diverging world

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• US and China dictating the pace
• Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se