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UK Comment — UK GDP growth stronger than expected in Q3 at +0.4% q-o-q

  1. GDP growth at +0.4% in Q3, up from 0.3% in Q2
  2. Growth buoyed by services and manufacturing, while construction output fell for the second quarter in a row
  3. Figures should not weigh too heavily on the BoE’s decision next week

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research |

UK Comment — UK PMIs suggest little momentum in GDP, but strong labour market

  1. Slight improvement in services PMI, but with few details
  2. Manufacturing and construction PMIs fell back in September
  3. Little momentum in overall activity, but increasing price pressures

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — Florence speech: The UK government aims to buy itself some more time

  1. The UK government aims for 'status quo' transition period of two years
  2. The UK still wants bespoke deal; a solution like the one for Norway or Canada will not be enough
  3. Our take: transition period will buy more time, but hard Brexit still the most likely outcome

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Global Macro Comment — A shift in tide for the EURUSD

The weak USD seen throughout the year will gradually feed into higher inflation, which in turn will lift interest rate expectations for the US and strengthen the USD.

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist |

UK Comment — UK retail sales stronger than expected in August

  1. Retail sales up 1.0% in August, beating consensus at +0.2%; July numbers revised upward
  2. Good volume growth, despite strong price increases across the board
  3. Sentiment suggests retail sales growth should hold up in the short term

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |