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UK

UK Comment — UK manufacturing output stronger than expected in December

  1. In December, industrial production rose by 1.1% (consensus 0.2%) and manufacturing by 2.1% (consensus 0.5%) in Dec
  2. Broad-based improvement in manufacturing increased total production
  3. Sentiment indicates growth will continue in 2017

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK economic sentiment weakens in January

  1. Services PMI softens in January, as growth in new orders and output slows
  2. Composite PMI down to 55.5 in January from 56.2 in December, as all sector PMIs weaken
  3. Composite PMI indicates GDP growth of around 0.5% q-o-q in Q1

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — No policy change from the BoE, but economic growth seen higher

  1. GDP projections revised up, inflation forecast broadly unchanged
  2. More resilient real economy, but greater labour market slack
  3. We continue to expect an unchanged bank rate for 2017-18, but revise our short-term estimate for EUR/GBP

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK household credit growth weaker than market expectations in December

  1. December mortgage approvals of 67,900 lower than forecast
  2. Net consumer credit also lower than expected at GBP 1.0bn in December
  3. Surveys indicate housing market and private consumption satisfactory for now, but softer ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — CBI Distributive Trades Survey reports a weak start to the year for UK retailers

  1. Retail sales volumes fell in the year to January 2017
  2. Private consumtion growth set to weaken this year

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK GDP growth stronger than expected in Q4, at +0.6% q-o-q

  1. GDP growth at 0.6% q-o-q in Q4, unchanged from Q3
  2. The services sector pulled the load
  3. UK economy more resilient than expected in 2016; set to weaken this year

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no