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UK Comment — UK manufacturing PMI improves in November, but underlying weakness intensifies

  1. Production lifted by stockpiling on Brexit fears
  2. Export orders continue to fall
  3. Sentiment still points to decelerating output growth

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Global Macro Forecast — Interest rate hikes despite lower growth

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• Divergence in global growth
• Central banks defy concerns

UK Comment — PMI surveys point to decelerating GDP growth

  1. Services PMI down to 52.2 in October, pulled down by new and current business
  2. Future expectations in services sector the lowest since July 2016
  3. PMI composite down to 52.1 in October from 54.1 in September

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — BoE kept policy rate and guiding unchanged - expects Brexit fog to clear soon

  1. Policy rate kept unchanged at 0.75%, vote was unanimous; QE programme also unchanged
  2. Forecast mostly unchanged
  3. Brexit uncertainty takes centre stage - the BoE chooses to be optimistic

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England: The MPC to wait and see

  1. Monetary policy to be left unchanged
  2. New data since August somewhat on the strong side
  3. Downside risks warrant cautiousness

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — Consumer price inflation surprises to the downside in September

  1. CPI and CPI core inflation down to 2.4% and 1.9% respectively
  2. Inflation pulled lower by the same volatile components that pulled up in August
  3. Inflation now in line with the BoE’s expectation

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |