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UK

UK Comment — UK manufacturing PMI weakest in over two years

  1. Headline PMI index down to 52.8 in August from 53.8 in July - weakest since July 2016
  2. Export orders plunging - pulled down by cooling global demand, trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty
  3. Sentiment suggests downside to near-term sector output growth

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global macro forecast — A diverging world

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• US and China dictating the pace
• Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — UK CPI inflation increases to 2.5% in July, slightly lower than the BoE expected

  1. CPI inflation up to 2.5% in July from 2.4% in June; core CPI inflation unchanged at 1.9%
  2. Headline inflation buoyed by energy price inflation
  3. Inflation to decelerate ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK labour market numbers mixed

  1. Unemployment down to 4.0%, total pay down to 2.4% and regular pay down to 2.7% in June
  2. Unemployment pulled down by drop in labour force
  3. Trend in line with BoE expectations so far

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Muted rebound in Q2

  1. Adjusting for one-offs, the GDP trend is still deteriorating
  2. Services growth and construction pulled up, while manufacturing pulled down - exports particularly weak
  3. We expect the GDP trend to continue to weaken and the BoE to hike no further

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Bank of England hikes in line with market expectations

  1. MPC with unanimous hike
  2. Outlook broadly unchanged – conditioning path implies two more hikes by the end of 2020
  3. We believe today’s hike was the last one for the next tow to three years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no