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UK

UK Comment — Bank of England less hawkish now

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.5 percent (decision was 7-2) and QE programme also unchanged
  2. Forecast revised slightly lower
  3. We no longer expect two hikes from the Bank of England this year

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Bank of England preview: we do not expect a rate hike in May

  1. Trends in real economy and inflation appear weaker than expected
  2. Market pricing lower: indicates just two rate hikes by the end of 2020
  3. BoE probably with cautious stance next week

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — PMIs signal disappointing start to Q2

  1. Second weakest growth in services activity since September 2016
  2. Underlying growth trend seems weaker than we expected earlier
  3. May hike from the BoE seems unlikely now

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Weak GDP numbers make May hike less likely

  1. GDP growth down to 0.1% in Q1 from 0.4% in Q4
  2. Effects of bad weather generally small
  3. Services and IP pulled up, while construction saw its largest fall since 2012

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty


Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — UK retail sales even weaker than expected in March

  1. Annual retail sales growth down to 1.1% in March
  2. Sales affected by bad weather, but underlying trend also deteriorating
  3. Sentiment suggests little momentum ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no