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UK

UK Comment — UK labour market numbers mixed

  1. Employment growth weaker, but wage growth a little stronger than expected
  2. Surveys suggest employment growth could strengthen ahead
  3. Labour market numbers broadly in line with the BoE forecast

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — CPI at 3.1 percent in November, in line with the BoE’s forecast

  1. CPI inflation up to 3.1 percent in November, lifted by volatile air fares
  2. Core inflation in line with consensus at 2.7 percent y-o-y
  3. PPIs and GBP exchange rate suggest CPI close to peaking

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK Manufacturing PMI indicates strong near-term growth

  1. Manufacturing PMI up to 58.2 in November, the highest reading in four years
  2. Current situation strong with broad-based improvement
  3. Future expectations still subdued

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK GDP growth unrevised at 0.4% in Q3

  1. GDP growth lifted by private consumption and weighed down by net trade
  2. Business investment growth decelerated
  3. Sentiment suggests growth could strengthen temporarily in Q4

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Key takeaways from the Autumn Budget

  1. GDP growth forecast revised down, now well in line with our expectations
  2. Fiscal policy somewhat more expansionary than expected, but no breach of fiscal rules
  3. Fiscal policy still contractionary, but less so than assumed in March

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Preview UK Autumn Budget

  1. No big changes - fiscal policy to continue to act as a drag on GDP growth
  2. Pushed from both sides, but not much room for manoeuvre

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no