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UK

UK Comment — PMIs signal weaker start to 2018

  1. Services PMI down to 53.0 in January from 54.2 in December (consensus 54.1)
  2. Sentiment pulled down by current business, while future expectations stay upbeat
  3. PMI composite down to 53.5 in January, the weakest level since August 2016

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — New signals from the BoE?

  1. We expect no change to monetary policy
  2. GDP has been stronger than expected, but labour market and inflation broadly in line
  3. BoE will offer new take on Brexit uncertainty

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Manufacturing sentiment slides further in January as price pressures intensify

  1. New orders and output weigh on sentiment
  2. Input prices rising at the fastest rate in 11 months
  3. Based on past form, sentiment suggests slower output growth in the near term

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK GDP growth stronger than expected in Q4

  1. UK GDP growth up to 0.5% in Q4, after 0.4% in Q3
  2. Growth pulled up by services and manufacturing; construction fell again
  3. Sentiment suggests GDP growth should hold up going into 2018

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Still robust labour market

  1. Catch-up in both employment and labour force growth
  2. Claims increasing, but surveys indicate labour market is still robust
  3. We believe Brexit-related uncertainty will keep wage growth subdued

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global Konjunkturprognos - uppdatering — Mogen konjunktur förändrar riskbilden

• Stark inledning på 2018 - svagare avslutning
• Medvindar mojnar för tillgångsmarknader
• Uppåtrisk för inflation och räntor

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se