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UK

UK Comment — Consumer price inflation fell as expected in December

  1. CPI and core CPI of 2.1% and 1.9% respectively
  2. Inflation just above the 2% target
  3. Bank of England on the sidelines

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Bank of England in Brexit wait-and-see mode

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.75%; QE program also unchanged
  2. BoE says future monetary policy will depend on Brexit and could be in either direction
  3. We believe Brexit will force the BoE to stay on hold for the next two years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Theresa May survives vote of no confidence by a solid margin

  1. Theresa May will stay on, as 200 MPs voted for her, but will step down before 2022 election
  2. All Brexit outcomes still on the table, ranging from reversing Brexit to a no-deal Brexit
  3. Uncertainty will linger for a long time yet, dampening economic activity and weighing on the pound

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK manufacturing PMI improves in November, but underlying weakness intensifies

  1. Production lifted by stockpiling on Brexit fears
  2. Export orders continue to fall
  3. Sentiment still points to decelerating output growth

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global Macro Forecast — Interest rate hikes despite lower growth

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• Divergence in global growth
• Central banks defy concerns

UK Comment — PMI surveys point to decelerating GDP growth

  1. Services PMI down to 52.2 in October, pulled down by new and current business
  2. Future expectations in services sector the lowest since July 2016
  3. PMI composite down to 52.1 in October from 54.1 in September

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no