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UK Comment — Theresa May survives vote of no confidence by a solid margin

  1. Theresa May will stay on, as 200 MPs voted for her, but will step down before 2022 election
  2. All Brexit outcomes still on the table, ranging from reversing Brexit to a no-deal Brexit
  3. Uncertainty will linger for a long time yet, dampening economic activity and weighing on the pound

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — UK manufacturing PMI improves in November, but underlying weakness intensifies

  1. Production lifted by stockpiling on Brexit fears
  2. Export orders continue to fall
  3. Sentiment still points to decelerating output growth

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Global Macro Forecast — Interest rate hikes despite lower growth

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• Divergence in global growth
• Central banks defy concerns

UK Comment — PMI surveys point to decelerating GDP growth

  1. Services PMI down to 52.2 in October, pulled down by new and current business
  2. Future expectations in services sector the lowest since July 2016
  3. PMI composite down to 52.1 in October from 54.1 in September

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — BoE kept policy rate and guiding unchanged - expects Brexit fog to clear soon

  1. Policy rate kept unchanged at 0.75%, vote was unanimous; QE programme also unchanged
  2. Forecast mostly unchanged
  3. Brexit uncertainty takes centre stage - the BoE chooses to be optimistic

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England: The MPC to wait and see

  1. Monetary policy to be left unchanged
  2. New data since August somewhat on the strong side
  3. Downside risks warrant cautiousness

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |