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UK

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty


Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — UK retail sales even weaker than expected in March

  1. Annual retail sales growth down to 1.1% in March
  2. Sales affected by bad weather, but underlying trend also deteriorating
  3. Sentiment suggests little momentum ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK inflation weaker than expected in March

  1. CPI inflation down to 2.5 percent and core CPI inflation down to 2.3 percent in March - weaker than expected
  2. Cost pressure still high, but trending downward
  3. Inflation not weak enough to prevent rate hike in May

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Labour market numbers leave BoE on track for May hike

  1. Unemployment rate down to 4.2%, beating the consensus
  2. Total pay unchanged at 2.8% (consensus: 3.0%); regular pay up to 2.8% from 2.6% (consensus: 2.8%)
  3. In line with BoE expectations

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK industrial production disappointed in February

  1. Production lifted by energy and weighed down by manufacturing and mining
  2. Bad weather in Feb. did not affect manufacturing numbers, according to the ONS
  3. Underlying manufacturing momentum seems to have slowed in Q1

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — PMI surveys signal slower GDP growth in Q1

  1. Services sentiment much weaker than expected, albeit partly weather-related
  2. New orders, activity and employment weaker
  3. We anticipate that the BoE's expectations are mostly unchanged; we continue to expect a rate hike in May

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no