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UK

UK Comment — Muted rebound in Q2

  1. Adjusting for one-offs, the GDP trend is still deteriorating
  2. Services growth and construction pulled up, while manufacturing pulled down - exports particularly weak
  3. We expect the GDP trend to continue to weaken and the BoE to hike no further

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Bank of England hikes in line with market expectations

  1. MPC with unanimous hike
  2. Outlook broadly unchanged – conditioning path implies two more hikes by the end of 2020
  3. We believe today’s hike was the last one for the next tow to three years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England: A close call

  1. BoE surprisingly hawkish in June
  2. New data somewhat on the weak side of BoE expectations
  3. A close call in August

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — BoE more hawkish than expected

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.5 percent, but minority favouring an imminent rate hike increased to three from two
  2. MPC sees Q1 weakness as merely temporary
  3. Increased likelihood of a rate hike in August

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — BoE to leave policy unchanged at its June meeting

  1. The majority of MPC members will probably want to wait and see
  2. Data have been mixed
  3. Market will watch for signals regarding August; we do not expect a rate hike until November

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no