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Macro Comment UKUpward revision contingent on political pragmatism

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Stronger-than-expected short-term momentum suggests that our GDP estimate for 2018 might be too low and our unemployment estimates for 2018-19 a little high. A more hawkish Bank of England and short-term momentum lead us to expect a rate hike in May. However, our expectation for a hike is dependent upon the assumption that the UK and the EU are able to strike a transition deal. For this to happen it would take some serious political pragmatism on both sides, but history has shown us that this often kicks in at the eleventh hour.

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Kari Due-Andresen

Chief Economist Norway

Norway and UK

kadu01@handelsbanken.no

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