Research
Tip: To personalise the research list, click the gear symbol above.


Choose type:


Fast Comment SwedenHousing prices in February

  1. Housing prices decreased in February, according to HOX
  2. The stricter amortisation requirement may have played a role
  3. We expect weaker activity in March
Housing prices decreased in February, according to HOX
According to Valueguard’s HOX index, housing prices decreased by 0.4 percent in monthly terms. The seasonally-adjusted monthly decrease was 0.9 percent, following a 1 percent rise in January (according to our calculations). It was a broad-based price decline according to the quality-adjusted HOX (see table below) in contrast to the index from Svensk Mäklarstatistik that pointed to price increases for apartments in Stockholm.
The stricter amortisation requirement may have played a role
We note that the number of housing units up for sale, as well as the number of units sold, continued to be high in February. However, it has stopped rising and weekly data suggest that the number of apartments for sale decreased at the end of the month. As such, we believe that one reason behind the elevated number of housing units for sale was the stricter amortisation requirement that took effect on March 1, thereby creating a rush to buy/sell ahead of this date. The high activity might also have affected housing prices. In addition, the elevated number of apartments for sale was buoyed by new construction, as there have been a high number of newly-built apartments up for sale.
We expect weaker activity in March
Given the abovementioned signs of temporary effects and given that supply is still elevated, we expect prices to decline in March. There are some indications of a weak start to March that support this view (e.g. data from Booli for the first week of March). Looking ahead, we expect housing prices to stabilise. The supply might be elevated for a prolonged period, partly because 2015-16 was characterised by a lower supply than normal, and partly because the prices of some newly-built apartments might need to be lowered in order to spur demand. Even if housing construction slows, it will still continue to add supply to the housing market ahead. Finally, we continue to emphasise the supportive economic conditions, such as low interest rates, strong global demand and high employment.

 


Source: Valueguard and Handelsbanken



 


Source: Valueguard, Macrobond


 
Source: Valueguard, Macrobond
 


Source: Valueguard, Macrobond

 
Source: Hemnet, Macrobond










Disclaimer

Helena Bornevall

Senior Economist

Scenario Analysis

hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-06-15

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-06-08

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-05-16

Fast Comment Sweden