Research
Tip: To personalise the research list, click the gear symbol above.


Choose type:


USA

Macro Comment US — Payrolls of 178,000 support a rate hike in December

Non-farm payrolls in November were in line with expectations, increasing by 178,000. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 4.6 percent, whereas hourly earnings fell by 0.1 percent, which was signifi-cantly weaker than expected. We keep our view that the next increase in the federal funds rate will take place in December. Financial markets agree and now fully price in such a rate hike.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Trump wins the presidential election

Trump has won the American presidential election, and both the House of Representatives and the Senate have Republican majorities. The major uncertainty regarding President Trump's political agenda will probably lie like a wet blanket over the economy in the near future.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Jobs report supports the case for Fed hike

  1. Payrolls climbed 161,000 in October following an upwardly revised gain of 191,000 in September
  2. The unemployment rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9%, and wages accelerated
  3. Overall, the report increases the odds of a Fed hike in December

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment US — No hike today, but come again next month

  1. The FOMC decided, as widely expected, to maintain the federal funds target rate at 0.25-0.5 percent
  2. The press statement indicated high probability for a hike next month...
  3. ...but only two members dissented vs. three at the meeting in September

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk