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USA

Global macro forecast — Global tensions - but no recession

• Challenging road ahead for the Nordics
• Monetary policy will ease but not remove the pain
• Markets will remain uneasy

Christina Nyman, Chief Economist | chny09@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — US and China step away from the brink; rate cuts in July (Fed), September (ECB)

At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stepped away from the brink and agreed on a temporary, but argua-bly fragile, trade truce. We have had rate cuts from the Fed next year in our forecasts for some time, but we now ex-pected to see them sooner. Despite it likely being a close call, we expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25bp in July and to deliver a cumulative 75bp of cuts early next year. We expect the ECB to adjust forward guidance in July, cut rates in September by 10bp and likely introduce quantitative easing thereafter.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Employment growth shifting down and weak wage growth

  1. Weak payrolls – US economy adds only 75,000 jobs in May
  2. Moderate wage growth – we do not expect wage growth to rise much further in this business cycle
  3. Will the Fed cut rates this year?

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Strong payrolls, but moderate wage growth

  1. Strong payrolls; unemployment at its lowest rate since 1969
  2. Wage growth holds steady
  3. We expect job growth to slow down and the Fed’s next move will be to cut rates

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed leaves rates on hold; we expect the next move to be a rate cut

  1. Fed leaves fund rates unchanged, but the interest on excess reserves rate (IOER) was lowered
  2. Minor tweaks to press statement
  3. We expect the Fed to leave rates on hold this year, with the next step to be rate cuts next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Meagre shelter for the global economy

• Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
• Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
• Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se