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USA

Fast Comment US — Strong labour market keeps Fed on track for further rate hikes

  1. Employment growth continues to go from strength to strength
  2. Wage pressure building
  3. We expect the Fed to continue to raise rates once a quarter

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — A diverging world

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• US and China dictating the pace
• Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Underlying employment growth strong; continued moderate wage growth

  1. Underlying employment growth strong
  2. Continued moderate wage growth
  3. Strong labour market will keep the Fed hiking

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed on course for rate hike in September

  1. Fed leaves rates on hold, as expected
  2. Minor tweaks to press statement; Fed on course for rate hike in September
  3. We expect that the Fed will continue to raise rates once a quarter

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Employment Report June: Strong employment gains, but weak wage growth

  1. Strong employment gains, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent
  2. Weak wage growth, despite tight labour market
  3. We continue to forecast two more rate hikes this year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se