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USA

Fast Comment US — March payrolls were much weaker than expected

  1. March unemployment rate declined to 4.5 percent, from 4.7 percent in February
  2. Hourly earnings were in line with expectations
  3. Our view: last hike in Q1 2018, first cut in H1 2019

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Change to balance sheet policy “later this year”, FOMC minutes said

  1. Balance sheet adjustments should be gradual and predictable
  2. FOMC sees considerable uncertainty about Trump’s fiscal policy plans
  3. Our view: last hike in Q1 2018, first cut in H1 2019

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — US toward recession

• Europe pressured by structural problems
• The economic and political toolbox is empty
• Low growth in the Nordics

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Partial budget blueprint for 2018 from President Trump

  1. Large increase in defence spending
  2. Large cuts in non-defence spending
  3. Trump will meet hard resistance in Congress

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed hiked rates as expected

  1. No surprises at the Fed meeting
  2. Economic forecasts are almost unchanged from December
  3. Our forecast: economic slowdown and no rate increases in 2019

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls increased by 235,000

  1. The unemployment rate declined as expected to 4.7 percent
  2. Hourly earnings were weaker than expected
  3. Fed’s signals of policy tightening do not primarily build on strong labour market data

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se