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USA

Fast Comment US — Strong labour market; wage growth accelerates

  1. US economy adds 312,000 jobs in December
  2. Wage pressure building
  3. Outlook for 2019: slower employment growth, but continued tight labour market

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed raises rates as expected and signals two more rate increases next year

  1. Fed raises rates as expected and signals two more rate increases next year
  2. Fed turns off the autopilot and becomes more data dependent as the funds rate approaches neutral levels
  3. We expect the Fed to push ahead with two more rate increases next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Strong labour market keeps Fed on track for rate increase later this month

  1. Underlying employment growth strong
  2. Wage growth holds steady
  3. Fed on course for rate increase later this month

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed on course for rate hike in December

  1. Fed leaves rates on hold, as expected
  2. Minor tweaks to press statement; Fed on course for rate hike in December
  3. We expect the Fed to continue to raise rates once a quarter; midterms do not change the outlook

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Interest rate hikes despite lower growth

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• Divergence in global growth
• Central banks defy concerns

Fast Comment US — Wage growth jumped to a nine-year high

  1. No sign of slowing in employment growth
  2. Wage growth jumped to a nine-year high
  3. Fed still on track for rate hike in December

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se