USA - Macro Research - Handelsbanken Capital Markets


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Fast Comment US — US tax overhaul now a done deal

  1. Passing of tax reform no surprise – moderate additional economic boost
  2. Deep, permanent tax cut for corporations and shorter-term relief for individuals
  3. The House needs to vote once more – will pass with ease

Fast Comment US — Fed hikes rates and keeps policy outlook unchanged

  1. Higher growth and lower unemployment, but unchanged inflation and policy outlook
  2. We maintain our forecast of two rate increases in 2018, but risks are on the upside
  3. Powell will replace Yellen as Fed Chair in the beginning of February

Fast Comment US — Payrolls increased by 228,000 in November

  1. Unemployment unchanged at 4.1 percent
  2. Wages increased by 0.2 percent, from a decline of 0.1 percent in October
  3. Fed hike in December is fully priced in by financial markets

Macro Comment US — Success has its price

After the Senate approval of a tax bill on Saturday, we have changed our view and now believe that tax reform will become reality. Presently, success seems more important than substance. In other words, Republicans, who are in desperate need of success ahead of next year's mid-term election, hope to sell a tax reform focused on corporate tax cuts, even though those cuts in reality are financed by their middle-class voters.

Macro Comment US — Tax reform now at the Senate floor

We do not believe that the Republicans are able to pass a tax reform, since the barriers are gigantic. Our view is that the Republicans in the Senate will fail to pass its tax bill this week. However, if we are wrong and the Senate would pass such a bill, we do not think that the House and the Senate could negotiate a common tax bill version that can pass both chambers.

Fast Comment US — Fed minutes confirm a rate hike in December

  1. Further tightening in the labour market
  2. The economy is operating at or above full employment
  3. Concerns about a potential build-up of financial imbalances