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Fast Comment US — FOMC minutes send mixed signals: increasing rates fairly soon and waiting longer

  1. Ample time for the FOMC to respond if inflationary pressures increased
  2. Time to start the discussion about a reduction of the Fed’s asset holdings
  3. Our view: Fed in a wait-and-see mode

Petter Lundvik, Economist |

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist |

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist |

Macro Comment US — Trump unlikely to lift growth permanently

GDP growth seems to be slightly above its potential rate, which would decrease unemployment further. Low productivity growth and an already overheated labour market would likely curb growth ahead. In our view, Trump's fiscal policy stimulus would only trigger a short-lived economic expansion followed by an economic slowdown. To avoid jeopardising growth, the Fed will likely keep its prevailing cautious interest rate strategy.

Petter Lundvik, Economist |

Fast Comment US — The unemployment rate increased slightly in January

  1. January payrolls were stronger than expected
  2. Hourly earnings were weaker-than-expected
  3. Low productivity and economic overheating likely to curb growth

Petter Lundvik, Economist |

Fast Comment US — Fed keeps interest rates unchanged; no new forward guidance

  1. The economy is improving, but no reference to Trump-related uncertainty
  2. Fed is waiting for more information about Trump’s fiscal policy stimulus
  3. The policy rate is likely to increase more gradually than markets currently expect

Petter Lundvik, Economist |