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All US Publications

Fast Comment US — Fed leaves rates on hold; balance sheet run-down to end in September

  1. Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected and “dot plots” indicate unchanged rates in 2019
  2. Fed continues to signal a patient stance; balance sheet run-down to end in September
  3. We expect the Fed to leave rates on hold this year, with the next step to be rate cuts next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Weak payrolls, but labour market conditions still tightening

  1. Weak employment growth, but labour market conditions still tightening
  2. Wage pressure building
  3. We expect weaker growth and rising unemployment to prompt the Fed to cut rates next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Employment growth continues to go from strength to strength

  1. Strong employment gains, while wage gains cool
  2. Payroll largely unaffected by the shutdown, but the unemployment rate is boosted
  3. We expect weaker growth and rising unemployment to prompt the Fed to cut rates next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed leaves rates on hold and signals no rush for further hikes

  1. Fed leaves rates unchanged, as expected
  2. Fed signals no rush to hike rates; likely to hold rates steady until at least June, we believe
  3. We expect the Fed to deliver a final hike in June, with the next step to be rate cuts next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se