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Fast Comment US — Fed minutes: Trump policy poses inflation risks

  1. Upside risks debated
  2. Considerable uncertainty about Trump's policy
  3. No delivery in line with officials' rate forecasts, in our view

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Fed increases rates and raises its rate forecasts

The Federal Reserve decided to increase rates by 0.25 percentage points at the December meeting. It also raised its forecasts for the federal funds rate. The Fed forecasts three rate increases of 0.25 percentage points each in 2017, 2018 and 2019, compared to its previous forecast in September of two increases in 2017 and three in 2018 and 2019. However, we do not believe that the Fed will deliver in line with its interest rate forecast. The Fed has postponed rate increases before and will likely continue to deliver less than promised.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Payrolls of 178,000 support a rate hike in December

Non-farm payrolls in November were in line with expectations, increasing by 178,000. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 4.6 percent, whereas hourly earnings fell by 0.1 percent, which was signifi-cantly weaker than expected. We keep our view that the next increase in the federal funds rate will take place in December. Financial markets agree and now fully price in such a rate hike.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se