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All US Publications

Fast Comment US — April payrolls at 211,000; stronger than expected

  1. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4 percent, from 4.5 percent in March
  2. Hourly earnings were in line with expectations
  3. Confident Fed to raise rates in June

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Limited need for Fed balance sheet reduction

We argue that the Fed will likely stick to its current "floor" policy regime. That implies that the Fed needs a balance sheet of at least USD 2,900bn today and USD 4,000bn in ten years, which indicates that a sharp reduction of the USD 4,500bn balance sheet is not urgent. The Fed plans to start unwinding its balance sheet later this year before Chair Janet Yellen's term ends in February next year. However, we expect the reduction to take place very gradually, with the Fed probably aiming for a reduction of USD 500bn over the first five years.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Confident Fed likely to raise rates in June

  1. Bullish statement pointing to a rate increase in June
  2. Fed downplays first quarter economic weakness
  3. Fed seems more willing to lead financial markets

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — March payrolls were much weaker than expected

  1. March unemployment rate declined to 4.5 percent, from 4.7 percent in February
  2. Hourly earnings were in line with expectations
  3. Our view: last hike in Q1 2018, first cut in H1 2019

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Change to balance sheet policy “later this year”, FOMC minutes said

  1. Balance sheet adjustments should be gradual and predictable
  2. FOMC sees considerable uncertainty about Trump’s fiscal policy plans
  3. Our view: last hike in Q1 2018, first cut in H1 2019

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — US toward recession

• Europe pressured by structural problems
• The economic and political toolbox is empty
• Low growth in the Nordics

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se