All US Publications - Macro Research - Handelsbanken Capital Markets


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All US Publications

Fast Comment US — US April labour market data a mixed bag

  1. US April labour market data a mixed bag
  2. Employment growth slowing slightly
  3. Market reaction muted - Fed outlook unchanged

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist |

Fast Comment US — Fed leaves rates on hold; June hike cemented

  1. Fed leaves rates on hold, as expected
  2. Minor tweaks to press statement; June hike cemented
  3. USD a touch lower; short rates unchanged

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research |

Fast Comment US — Employment disappoints

  1. Payrolls rise by 103,000 people in March; weaker than expected
  2. Unempoyment rate unchanged at 4.1%; wage growth picks up to 2.7% (2.6%)
  3. Weak report does not alter our outlook for three more Fed hikes this year

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

Macro Comment US — Short-term fiscal boost, but increasing risks

Substantially more expansionary fiscal policy indicates stronger growth for both 2018 and 2019 than in our January forecast. However, the demand impulses from the tax reform and budget deal also increase the risks of overheating. The Federal Reserve will, in our view, respond and raise the policy rate three more times this year. Moreover, we believe that financial conditions will tighten more than households and firms expect. Thus, even if we now expect growth to be maintained for longer, we are still more pessimistic than consensus about the longer-term performance of the US economy and believe that the US will lead the next global downturn.

Christina Nyman, Head of Forecasting |

Fast Comment US — Fed hikes and raises rate outlook for 2019, 2020

  1. Fed hikes and raises rate outlook for 2019, 2020
  2. Press statement little changed; significantly lower unemployment forecasts
  3. USD slightly lower, curve steepens

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist |