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Fast Comment US — Fed on track to raise rates in December

  1. We maintain our view of a December hike
  2. New Fed Chair to be announced tomorrow
  3. Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell is frontrunner

Macro Comment US — Who will become the next Fed Chair?

Trump's idiosyncrasies make it hard to forecast which of the five candidates on his shortlist will become the next Fed chair. Our best guess is Gary Cohn. He is the only candidate on the list in favour of both low interest rates and financial deregulation. However, Trump sees him as disloyal, which could open the way for a nomination of Jerome Powell or Kevin Warsh, who are both considered personally loyal to Trump.

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research |

Fast Comment US — Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hinder payroll figures

  1. Non-farm payrolls declined by 33,000 vs. an increase of 169,000 in August
  2. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent, from 4.4 percent in August
  3. The Fed sees beyond the weak September labour market data

Fast Comment US — Balance sheet normalisation and rate rise in December

  1. The Fed lifts its growth forecast
  2. Core inflation forecast unchanged
  3. Fed's fund rate forecast slightly lowered

Global Macro Comment — A shift in tide for the EURUSD

The weak USD seen throughout the year will gradually feed into higher inflation, which in turn will lift interest rate expectations for the US and strengthen the USD.