Macro Comment US — Republican tax reform toward defeat

We do not think the Republicans are able to pass a tax reform in Congress, but if they do, we expect a watered-down reform without the potential to lift growth sustainably. This article explains why the barriers to passing a tax reform bill are gigantic. One group's gain from the tax reform tends to be another group's loss. The rift goes between rich and poor, as well as between different regions. The slim Republican majority in the Senate reinforces the problems, as it makes it easy for small coalitions of Senators to block a decision.

Fast Comment US — Payrolls still affected by hurricanes Harvey and Irma

1. Strong payroll readings in October, although weaker than expected
2. Earnings are also still affected by the hurricanes
3. The Fed will look beyond the hurricane effects, likely to hike in December

Fast Comment US — Powell replaces Yellen as Fed Chair

1. Powell stands for a continuation of the status quo
2. Dovish-leaning on policy on interest rates
3. Willing to undertake some financial deregulation at the margin.

Fast Comment US — Fed on track to raise rates in December

1. We maintain our view of a December hike
2. New Fed Chair to be announced tomorrow
3. Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell is frontrunner

Macro Comment US — Who will become the next Fed Chair?

Trump's idiosyncrasies make it hard to forecast which of the five candidates on his shortlist will become the next Fed chair. Our best guess is Gary Cohn. He is the only candidate on the list in favour of both low interest rates and financial deregulation. However, Trump sees him as disloyal, which could open the way for a nomination of Jerome Powell or Kevin Warsh, who are both considered personally loyal to Trump.

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019