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Fast Comment US

Fast Comment US — Employment disappoints

  1. Payrolls rise by 103,000 people in March; weaker than expected
  2. Unempoyment rate unchanged at 4.1%; wage growth picks up to 2.7% (2.6%)
  3. Weak report does not alter our outlook for three more Fed hikes this year

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment US — Fed hikes and raises rate outlook for 2019, 2020

  1. Fed hikes and raises rate outlook for 2019, 2020
  2. Press statement little changed; significantly lower unemployment forecasts
  3. USD slightly lower, curve steepens

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Stellar employment but wage growth declines

  1. Payrolls increased 313,000 in February - markedly above expectations
  2. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent due to an increase in the participation rate
  3. Wage growth declined from 2.8 percent to 2.6 percent, which will take the edge off rate hike fears and support equity markets

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment US — Fed Chairman Powell strikes a bullish tone on the economy

  1. Powell says rates can continue to rise gradually
  2. Outlook for growth remains strong, aided by fiscal policy and firmer global demand
  3. March rate increase appears to be 'a done deal'; risk of four increases this year is increasing

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment US — CPI data keep inflation jitters alive

  1. Core CPI surprised on the upside with an increase of 0.3% m-o-m; consensus: 0.2% m-o-m
  2. Keeps the possibility of more aggressive Fed tightening alive
  3. Expect USD and yields to rise and stocks to fall

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment US — Highest wage growth since 2009

  1. Stronger job growth trend
  2. Unemployment unchanged but…
  3. Watch the wage growth

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk