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Fast Comment US

Fast Comment US — Employment growth continues to go from strength to strength

  1. Strong employment gains, while wage gains cool
  2. Payroll largely unaffected by the shutdown, but the unemployment rate is boosted
  3. We expect weaker growth and rising unemployment to prompt the Fed to cut rates next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed leaves rates on hold and signals no rush for further hikes

  1. Fed leaves rates unchanged, as expected
  2. Fed signals no rush to hike rates; likely to hold rates steady until at least June, we believe
  3. We expect the Fed to deliver a final hike in June, with the next step to be rate cuts next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Strong labour market; wage growth accelerates

  1. US economy adds 312,000 jobs in December
  2. Wage pressure building
  3. Outlook for 2019: slower employment growth, but continued tight labour market

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed raises rates as expected and signals two more rate increases next year

  1. Fed raises rates as expected and signals two more rate increases next year
  2. Fed turns off the autopilot and becomes more data dependent as the funds rate approaches neutral levels
  3. We expect the Fed to push ahead with two more rate increases next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Strong labour market keeps Fed on track for rate increase later this month

  1. Underlying employment growth strong
  2. Wage growth holds steady
  3. Fed on course for rate increase later this month

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed on course for rate hike in December

  1. Fed leaves rates on hold, as expected
  2. Minor tweaks to press statement; Fed on course for rate hike in December
  3. We expect the Fed to continue to raise rates once a quarter; midterms do not change the outlook

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se